What polls show and narratives (around what polls show) are two different things. At the nat'l level polling did pretty good in the House (actually underestimated R support). Ds did better than expected in bc Ds targeted swing districts, although lost support in most of country.

Here are the Latino and Black support plots for 2024 vs 2020 in terms of net Biden support and Biden share of the two-party vote.

Both sets of support are down, with Latino averages especially noisy and Black averages maybe trending toward 2020.

The NY Times has a new tool for comparing the rate of chronic absenteeism by school district from 2019 to 2023.

I used the tool to create this chart for all the Oregon school districts in their database.

datawrapper.de/_/DqzDI/

If it looks like amateur hour in the US House, it's not just you.
It really is becoming amateur hour.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…

This looks like an awesome book and looking forward to hearing more when Stephanie Ternullo visits U Oregon next month!

In more important public opinion news, no one knows who Shohei Ohtani (the face of baseball!) is. Pretty bi-partisan levels of lack of information.

Biden2020 won 18-29 yr olds 59%-35%. So this would imply a +23 swing for Trump in 4 years. I believe there has been some movement, but this would be a pretty historical realignment w/o clear reason. Has anyone put together polls split by age for this point in 2020? 2016?

We (Political Science at WashU) are hosting our second summer research program for undergraduates! We begin reviewing applications in 2 weeks. If you know students who are thinking of grad school and want to get hands-on research experience, encourage them to apply at: sites.wustl.edu/wusteps/

Most recent YouGov poll (which is an opt-in panel), puts Cong Dems on top of Cong Reps by 1pp but Biden is trailing Trump in same poll by 2pp. FWIW, this is reverse of 2020 when Biden led House Dems.

leaving this chart out of a piece -- tweeting it here for you. at this point in the 1980 election, jimmy carter was polling at a vote margin of 14 points

Here's the graph. First, the 'gold standard' ANES shows no secular decline in black partisanship. All of the decline is in the CES.

Moreover, the % Democratic is routinely higher in the ANES than the CES, especially if you include leaners.

This looks interesting.

For all the talk of polling, there hasn't been a ton of discussion that the nat'l generic ballot polling in 2022 was fairly accurate and actually slightly under-estimated GOP support. House 'popular vote' was R=50.6; D=47.8 and 538 prediction was 1.2pp diff.

Very interesting. But unclear to me a) will the realignment hold (at least to this degree) or is it polling noise; b) is it a realignment or specific to this election (e.g., Reagan '84 does well among Hispanic voters ) & c) conditional on a/b -- why (now)?

13 point gap between 3/2 NYT poll (phone) and 3/2 YouGov survey (web) among young voters. Mode matters

18-29 yr olds and 65+ show very similar support for Trump in latest NYT poll. However, it is a phone-based poll, and there seems to be increasing evidence that such polls over-estimate support for the right among the youngest voters (and less so in other age-groups).