In our latest, د. هشام بن عبدالعزيز الغنام and I argue that the regional trend of pivoting towards Asia has become a more attractive option in light of the War on Gaza--to counter both US hegemony and its pro-Israeli biases.

amwaj.media/article/how-ga…

A good report by Justin Olivier Salhani for Al Jazeera English about Iraqi PM Sudani's DC visit, its domestic dimensions, and wider geopolitical context ( #Iran - #Israel ). I was featured alongside good analysts: Nancy Ezzeddine نانسي عزالدين, Sajad Jiyad سجاد, Yesar Al-Maleki يَسار, & Sarhang Hamasaeed
aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/17…

As I get ready to take a break after 7 wonderful years at the Clingendael Institute, the team is looking for a research fellow with a focus on #Iraq and/or #KSA . An opportunity to work with an excellent team of colleagues. careers.clingendael.org/vacancy-job-2/…

While Sudani’s visit comes amidst heightened regional tensions, the focus should still be pressing domestic issues. The US has an opportunity to mediate between Baghdad and Erbil in a win-win-win situation. Read my latest piece with Tamer Badawi تامر بدوي amwaj.media/article/deep-d…

Ahead of محمد شياع السوداني's first meeting with Joe Biden, Nancy Ezzeddine نانسي عزالدين and I explain in this analysis for Amwaj.media what is likely to be on their agenda. We identify four key topics and highlight Baghdad and Erbil's positions on them 🧵
amwaj.media/article/deep-d…

My latest: Will we get a direct war between Israel & Lebanon?

Not our base case, though risks are rising

Factors:
- International pressure on Israel
- Hezbollah reluctance
- Domestic Israeli politics

We use a game theory framework to analyse these factors on Bloomberg Terminal

The latest period witnessed the highest death rate in Lebanon since the beginning of the attacks on the southern border with 30 casualties recorded in the week of Feb. 12-18 alone.

More ➡️ bit.ly/border-escalat…

#Egypt receives a major bailout from the #UAE 's ADQ with a $35bn project in Ras El Hekma. $11bn of it is financed by existing Emirati deposits in Egypt's Central Bank. This should help unlocking a long-negotiated $10bn IMF loan package.
(1/2)
ft.com/content/bee165…

This morning's attack on Safed by Hezbollah marked the most significant attack since the war's onset. Key observations include some of the rockets' travel exceeding 15 km without interception by the Iron Dome, their accuracy in hitting precise targets, and the impact of a single

Over the month of Jan. Israeli forces struck Lebanon more than 20 strikes/day on average, Hezbollah successfully targeted a number of Israeli military sites, and conflict spread to multiple regional fronts.

More ➡️ bit.ly/border-escalat…

This poem by Joseph Fasano has broken my heart in a thousand tiny little shards of glass.

I always wanted you to be born
And so did the world.

Let me show you how I cried when you were born.

The Islamic resistance in Iraq publishes on a new telegram channel a video of the drone launch towards Haifa, with a banner reading “the second stage: tightening the siege”.

برأيي بقاء حزب لله ضمن قواعد الاشتباك وقراره بعدم التصعيد رغم الخسائر الكبيرة إشارة إلى حذر حزب الله وتجنبه لحرب شاملة. لدى إيران وحزب الله استراتيجية مماثلة بالرغم من إختلاف الجبهات وحيثياته

ثريد مهم جداً من ١٣ كليب، يتناول فيه منير يونس تفاصيل الموازنة بطريقة سهلة الفهم، من مقابلة البارحة مع ندى أندراوس

ويتَطرَق لِأهمية وزراة المال ومصرف لبنان في الازمة ويُسمي الأمور والفاسدين بأسمائهم

١. وزارة المالية هي أُم الوزارات والذي يتمسك بها لا يريد إصلاحات بل لأغراض أخرى

I wrote a piece for the FT today about the risks of regional escalation in the Middle East linked to the Gaza war.

ft.com/content/8f2157…

No surprise, my prognosis is grim:

“Perhaps the most immediate danger, however, is not a sudden explosion of violence across the region,