50 developers have defaulted, and millions of Chinese households own property that isn't worth very much. It will take years, and a lot of money, to resolve the real estate crash. wsj.com/real-estate/ch… via The Wall Street Journal

The #IMFMeetings last week highlighted the importance of #debt resolution for emerging #economies . But the formula for relief has gotten very complicated. Some thoughts on this critical issue here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

Some say the road to #netzero begins and ends with #copper . Our analysis of demand and supply for this critical #commodity here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

Ben #Bernanke recently completed a review of the #BankofEngland 's forecasting process. His conclusions are must-reading for those of us who run models. A summary of the work here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#Commercial #realestate is a source of concern, with #hybrid work creating office vacancies. But not all CRE is created equal...and not all office property is created equal. Our thoughts on the situation here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#Commodities prices have been strengthening. But #water may be the most precious of them all in the coming years. How can we satisfy the world's thirst? Comments on a serious long-term challenge here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

We recently lost a giant in our field: Daniel #Kahneman . His study of behavioral #economics is must-reading for those in our field...and beyond our field. My tribute here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#Immigration to the United States appears to have exceeded everyone's expectations. Is this good for the #economy ? How will it affect #inflation ? Some answers here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#China has chosen to stimulate the supply side of its #economy , as opposed to boosting domestic demand. The resulting flood of #exports was bound to attract concern from the United States.
nytimes.com/2024/04/17/us/…

I heard a lot of concern about the national #debt from clients during a recent trip. Their questions, and my answers, here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#China 's #currency is weak...but it isn't because it is being manipulated. Our analysis of this critical #exchangerate here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

The #inflation news so far this year has been too hot. As a result, we don't expect the #FederalReserve to lower rates until September...at the earliest. More on our change of view here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

Global markets seem to be taking the missile attack on #Israel in stride, for now. #Oil prices (below) have eased after spiking yesterday.

Just wondering what the economics are here: office space in city centers isn't in high demand, and we have a shortage of apartments on the lower end of the spectrum, not the high end.

The 'no landing' scenario is rising in likelihood. nytimes.com/2024/04/11/bus…

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Tough day in the markets after the #CPI report this morning. #Inflation is still surprising us...most recently on the upside.

The U.S. recovery is starting to feel a little uneven, and that may hinder the quest for a soft landing. Our views here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

#Budget scoring is a dark art. Assumptions can make it seem as though #tax cuts and spending programs will pay for themselves, but the proof is in the #deficit ! Some reflections here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…

The era of negative #interestrates is over for now. Was it a success? Not really. A retrospective on this grand experiment here: northerntrust.com/insights-resea…