“Success is when the boats have been stopped,” Sunak tells Beth Rigby — setting himself a very high bar

I guess the people at London Elects haven’t read the literature about how negating a frame reinforces it…

The EU's new asylum regulation has an anti-Rwanda clause.

🚨 New language model for historical occupations 🚨
OccCANINE is a new tool, which turns occupational descriptions (in all their pesky variety) into standard HISCO codes. Accurate, multilingual and fast. Developed by Christian M. Dahl, Torben Johansen, and myself 🧵👇 (1/12)

The new income requirement for family visas comes into effect today. Our estimates suggest that 50% of employees don't earn enough to bring a foreign partner to UK under this initial phase. By 2025, when phase 3 starts, this figure could rise to 70% 👉migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…

What do the ban on migrant care workers' dependants and the increase in visa fees have in common? Both help the govt achieve policy goals, but with a trade-off: the wellbeing of migrants

Two new commentaries explain why. Here's a thread of the key points
migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…

In the Times today I look at why government departments have stopped publishing the data we need to have a better debate on migration. I'm backing Robert Jenrick amendments to start fixing this.
thetimes.co.uk/article/ebb5d1…

Most skilled workers sponsored last year (around 70%) were publicly funded jobs in health/care

They don't face the 38.7k rule so are broadly unaffected - govt largely 'exempting itself' from the rises

(Care workers must now get £11.90/hour, 46p above min wage)

Most other jobs using skilled worker route meet the £38.7k rate easily.
Much bigger deal for them is job-specific 'going rates'
They're up a lot, eg up 15k for programmers.
This'll mostly affect younger workers. Some young people face lower rates, but only temporarily - to stay

Very different picture in the private sector (the remaining 30% or so - smaller numbers but higher impact)

The £38.7k threshold hits some mid-skill jobs (eg chefs, who have tended to come at around £26k and will struggle to meet the new threshold at all)

Higher salary rules for Skilled Workers in force today, including £38,700 'general threshold''. Does it matter?

TLDR: Hugely different impacts depending on type of job (mid-skilled vs. high-paying vs. public sector)

THREAD

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/comm…

Useful thread on the last three years of Afghan schemes and some challenges applicants have had using them

This week marks three years since the UK launched resettlement schemes for Afghan nationals following the Taliban takeover of Kabul. However, irregular entries of Afghans have outnumbered resettlement figures across most quarters between 2021 and 2023🧵

New survey data on Global Talent visa holders suggests the visa played a role in decisions to come to UK
Many praised flexibility of not being tied to specific job/employer
Visa holders less impressed w NHS fee/financial burden esp for those with families

gov.uk/government/pub…

Important report from the (now fired) Independent Chief Inspector of Borders & Immigration - quick summary 👇

Why has the care visa been such a mess?

The Independent Chief Inspector gives some insight in his latest report

5 key points:

1. The sheer size & acceleration of the care route made it harder to vet the employers

Small boat arrivals may be up 17% in 2024 so far but before getting too excited remember most crossings are May-Sept

You need a magnifying glass to see recent increase in context of last 2 years

A few winter months don't tell us much about whether long-term trend is changing