Marko Bjegovic Good stuff!

Haven't watched CNBC tdy but as it turned out, they talked about the same stuff I wrote in my latest #CPI thread, particularly prof. Siegel:
cnbc.com/video/2024/04/…

x.com/MBjegovic/stat…

At first glance Mar #CPI looks hot.

Some have even said the #Fed should hike rates from here based on the last 3 months of CPI.

Is #inflation reaccelerating?

Let's delve into details.

A CPI thread.

1/9

No wonder so many ppl think #inflation is higher when they have a hard time understanding some basic stuff like seasonality.

On average (data going back to 1978) PPI gasoline prices (NSA) have risen at a rate that is about 2.5 times higher than Feb.

Mar #PPI cooler than expected
+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.6% in Feb
+2.1% YoY +2.2% consensus vs +1.6% in Feb

Initial Jobless Claims 211K vs 215K consensus vs 222K prior
Continuing Claims 1817K vs 1789K prior

#inflation

Mar #CPI higher than expected

Headline
+0.4% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.4% in Feb
+3.5% YoY vs +3.4% consensus vs +3.2% in Feb

Core
+0.4% MoM vs +0.3% consensus vs +0.4% in Feb
+3.8% YoY vs +3.7% consensus vs +3.8% in Feb

#inflation

Wed we will get Mar #CPI .

Every1 is quite nervous about this report bc it could break or strengthen the #Fed 's case to cut rates this year.

So where will Mar CPI print at?

A short thread.

#inflation

1/4

#gold went up in 2008 and then again in 2009-2011.

As it turned out both occasions weren't about 'high #inflation ' ahead.

This doesn't seem to be a 'high inflation' warning tdy either.

It is a warning though...