Attitude to marshmallow test: well, I don’t want a marshmallow, and I don’t want two marshmallows even more but I wont have to deal with them until tomorrow

🐓 Is Bird Flu the next COVID? 🐓🦤 Little chance @Tone_Row_ and I have built a risk index using data from @kalshi and Metaculus. BirdFluRisk[dot]com Link in next tweet 👇

For all the disagreement on AI risk, and for how high-stakes it is, it's weird that there's not more public conversation between key figures, besides brief exchanges of 280-character tweets. Why was the last recorded conversation with Geoffrey Hinton and Yann LeCun 4 years ago????

If I lie down and close my eyes, I often get right to sleep. However, doing so sounds dreadful: I want to live! There are a handful of kinds of living that actually make me sleepy though, and one of them is mathy puzzles you can do in your head. Anyone have good ones?

Transcription software creates a better record of what I say when I'm experiencing transcription software than is ideal

A good time for this classic by my partner, Katja Grace 🔍

I think this kind of thing is a relatively likely risk from AI

A large fraction of humanity being powerless is a familiar situation, but we think like there's some law against every human being powerless. That changes if you introduce a new species with superior performance at everything.

I'm starting a part-time coaching practice! I've wanted this for years, and am really excited that I now have the space and clarity to make it happen :)

Running with the brain computer metaphor, how do people get different software? open.substack.com/pub/worldspiri…

No, people aren't always saying their pet issue might lead to human extinction. They say this about: - AI - climate - nuclear - religious "end of times" That's pretty much it. So yeah, you CAN actually take the time to evaluate these 4 claims seriously! 🫵🧐😲

True - recovered it, but still be very wary of messages from me asking you to book a time in my calendar to talk about AI!

And Ajeya Cotra's account has been hacked by the same folks - if you get messages from her asking to schedule a meeting, be very wary! She says she will never reach out to a potential grantee by Twitter, always email.

Absolutely phenomenal exchange from Rep. Scott Perry at a recent US House hearing about AI – demonstrates way more understanding of the issue than is typical: Rep Perry: “I do want to make everybody aware of some things that I am aware of. I’m going to refer directly to an AI

Nice article explaining that Superintelligence is not some derpy gadget, whatever Zuckerberg may think about it. Quotes me, Katja Grace 🔍, and Nate Soares ⏹️

What are the most alarming facts that everyone should know about AI, AI progress, AI risk, etc.?

Bad news for AI safety: To fight against AI regulation, VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, AI billionaire Greg Brockman, and others recently started a >$100 million super PAC, one of the largest operating PACs in the US.

"If 'we' don't build it, then 'they' will." A classic – and the driving idea that is behind much of the danger. Enough truth to be really problematic. But only partly true. Here are four alternatives: (1) Someone (e.g. the US or Chinese government) tells others none of them can

I’ve written an FAQ correcting common critiques of my surveys

Saying "AI is not inevitable" seems to have started a bit more of a conversation that I would've thought. It seems a lot of people are really insistent that it's inevitable. It's weird to witness people forcefully rejecting their agency. 🤷