My latest for Vox on what the new US aid can and can't do for Ukraine vox.com/2024/4/24/2413…

Well, well well. The deputy defense minister in charge of military housing, who owns multiple European residences and wears luxury goods, is arrested for taking bribes. The interesting thing about this of course is why now, and who did he irritate? /1 svoboda.org/a/zamministra-…

As the deliveries await final approval, Russia will try to exploit Ukraine’s lack of Western assistance, attacking as many places as possible before help arrives, Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia deputy team lead at ISW, told Matt Berg at POLITICO's NatSec Daily.

“Russians definitely

'Since October, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory to Russian forces, largely because of a lack of artillery, said Kateryna Stepanenko who added that Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer.' Reuters

Tonight’s report focuses on the impact of Russian information operations on delaying and deterring Western transfers of high-end weapons systems and other military aid to Ukraine.

Russia's war on evangelical Christians - stunning reporting from peter pomerantsev.
'By hurting those who practice an “American” religion,' he writes, 'the Kremlin can claim it is striking against American power—while picking on the powerless.'
time.com/6969273/russia…

Thank you, Kate Gerbeau for a wonderful conversation!

Putin’s goal is to have the West reach the “conclusion that Russia prevailing in Ukraine is inevitable and that we must stay on the sidelines,” said Nataliya Bugayova, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The Kyiv Independent Exactly. We talked about exactly the same with Kateryna Stepanenko from Institute for the Study of War recently: youtu.be/l2gS_Xcjzbs

. Kateryna Stepanenko tells me: “Any Russian gains in Ukraine without consistent military aid can be irreversible,” Stepanenko said. But she added that the ISW still projects that Ukraine can achieve their definition of victory — which is a liberation of all their territories.

A snippet of our interview with Kateryna Stepanenko from Institute for the Study of War by Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M about how Delays in Western Aid Help Russia Win youtu.be/l2gS_Xcjzbs?si… via YouTube

NEW: The current US debate about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine is based in part on the assumption that the war will remain stalemated regardless of US actions. That assumption is false. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. 🧵(1/8)

Russian victory in Ukraine would have devastating consequences for the defense of NATO. Ukrainian success, even if Ukraine just holds the frontlines roughly where they now are, on the other hand, would make a successful Russian attack on Poland or the Baltic States much harder

Iran's attack on Israel was similar to the strikes Russia is launching against Ukraine as it tries to determine the best set of measures to overcome Western-style air and missile defenses - Institute for the Study of War

The Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel shows that Iran is learning

The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances as the seizure of the town would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against the cities that form in effect a

Russians leave a trail of destruction, showing a particular disdain for religion. They ruthlessly target everyone, even priests.

This troubling event occurred last year, prompting reflection on how many similar stories may emerge.
🧵(1/6)

Kherson is a microcosm of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Liberated and resilient yet under constant and deadly Russian artillery strikes, next to the frontline, and with daily reminders of the Russian atrocities committed against the locals during the occupation. Past life of a

.Nataliya Bugayova: Escaping the Kremlin-generated alternative reality requires more than evading Russian information operations. The US must reconnect with its own interests and the ground truths of this war.
🧵(1/10)

1. The West has the advantage, but it must decide to use it.

Американський Інститут вивчення війни опублікував аналітичну оцінку озвученим Росією ядерним погрозам на адресу нових членів НАТО. На думку експертів, російські заяви про уявні загрози від НАТО спрямовані на створення певних інформаційних умов.

holosameryky.com/a/rosijski-poh…

.Kateryna Stepanenko tells CNN that Russia’s likely goal is to test Ukrainian defenses for weak spots and strain Ukrainian defensive capabilities ahead of reported upcoming summer offensive operations. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/06…