Update: Our new US tariffs paper now tracks retail price impacts through April 24. Prices of Chinese goods have risen steadily since "Liberation Day". Full paper here: …lab-rw7gfm.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/tariffs/Tracki…

Amazing visuals of how trade with China shows up in our daily lives (and what the tariffs mean), from The New York Times . nytimes.com/interactive/20…

My latest New York Times Opinion makes a point that is obvious to economists but that many non-economists find surprising and unintuitive: raising the budget deficit--which the Congress is working on doing by $7T--would also raise the trade deficit.

A new version of our trade war paper is out at the NBER this week. Key update: factoring in tariffs on intermediate inputs nearly wipes out any terms-of-trade gains from reciprocal tariffs and greatly amplifies the cost of retaliation for the US economy.

nytimes.com/2025/05/15/opi…

Place-based policies subsidizing investments raise wages and create jobs for young and less-educated workers, from Philipp Grunau, Florian Hoffmann, Thomas Lemieux, and Mirko Titze nber.org/papers/w33785

Please submit! I am very excited about this conference with Matteo Maggiori Jesse Schreger Jeff Frieden Reka Juhasz Christoph Trebesch

Bigger bill than TCJA, less dynamic feedback from economic growth.

* The effect of all 2025 US tariffs + the 50% EU 'reciprocal' tariff is 3x as much, rel to income, for families in the 2nd income decile as it at the top (-4.2% v -1.4%). * In $ terms, the average cost at the bottom is $1,800 per family per year in 2024$, v. $7,300 at the top 6/7

This move puts the lives of Americans at risk The attack on mRNA vaccines is beyond absurd It was President Trump's Operation Warp Speed that gave us mRNA vaccines These vaccines have been administered nearly 2 billion times to hundreds of millions of people around the world

#CallforPapers for the conference 'The New Global Economy: Trade Wars & De-dollarisation?' Deadline: 1 July Organisers: Meredith A. Crowley CamEcon, Lu Han Bank of Canada, Dmitry Mukhin LSE, Ben Tomlin Bank of Canada More and submit your paper cepr.org/events/new-glo…

Thrilled to share that our paper is now accepted by the Economic Journal! We show that China’s recent export slowdown has a criminogenic effect—driving up crime, especially in manufacturing regions with vulnerable populations. #EconTwitter #China #Crime #TradeShocks

Opinion | The Genius Act Will Bring Economic Chaos - The New York Times nytimes.com/2025/06/17/opi…

“It worries me when people think that adverse effects are not happening because the economy still looks strong overall,” Kadee Russ said. politico.com/news/2025/06/1…

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Doug Irwin's Presidential address to the Economic History Association from Sep 2025 is now published online and open access. Great stuff! Douglas Irwin cambridge.org/core/journals/…

Great paper, competition in export destinations induces more innovation by firms. Highly relevant given recent "fear of China" trade restrictions. This paper won the EIIT best student paper award in 2022 when UCSD hosted, which gives you an idea of publication lags too.

Call for papers The CEP/LSE – Warwick Junior Trade Workshop will bring together PhD students in the field of international economics for a day of job market paper presentations and discussions. Submit papers by 27 July. More ➡️ cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/ev…

Even if CPI data has not yet been seriously affected, as I mention in this article, chronic underfunding of the BLS is deeply concerning. Reliable economic data is not something we can take for granted. From The Economist: economist.com/united-states/…

The 1942 Exclusion Act removed high-skilled farmers of Japanese ancestry near the West Coast. This significantly reduced long-run growth of agriculture in the affected counties, from Peter Zhixian Lin and Giovanni Peri nber.org/papers/w33971