📊 NEVADA GE: The Tyson Group

🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Biden: 44%
⬜ Undecided: 9%
---
🟥 Trump: 40%
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 11%
—
Senate
🟦 Rosen: 47%
🟥 Brown: 33%
🟨 Cunningham: 4%
⬜ Undecided: 16%
—
Job Approval
Gov. Lombardo: 51-30 (+21)

.Polymarket - Swing States Odds (5/27)

NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 76%
🟦 Biden: 24%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 65%
🟦 Biden: 35%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 62%
🟦 Biden: 38%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 61%
🟦 Biden: 39%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Biden: 51%
🟥 Trump: 49%
.
MICHIGAN
🟦 Biden: 54%
🟥 Trump:

.Polymarket - Republican Vice Presidential Odds (shift since May 14)

• Tim Scott: 28% (+10)
• Doug Burgum: 18% (-3)
• Marco Rubio: 11% (+2)
• J.D. Vance: 9% (-3)
• Ben Carson: 6% (+2)
• Tulsi Gabbard: 6% (+2)
• Nikki Haley: 4% (+1)
• Elise Stefanik: 4% (-2)
• V.

📊 CIVIQS POLL: Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?

• Jan. 27, 2023: 34-59 (net: -25)

• Jan. 26, 2024: 38-57 (net: -19)

• May 26, 2024: 41-55 (net: -14)

Trump's highest net favorability rating since November 24, 2021

civiqs.com/results/favora…

📊 CIVIQS: Biden Job Approval (5/26)

🔵 Approve: 35%
🟠 Disapprove: 57%
—
• Arizona: 31-62 (-31)
• Nevada: 32-61 (-29)
• Georgia: 31-59 (-28)
• Pennsylvania: 33-60 (-27)
• Michigan: 34-59 (-25)
• Wisconsin: 41-53 (-12)

civiqs.com/results/approv…

.Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner

🟥 Trump 56% (+19)
🟦 Biden 37%
🟨 RFK Jr 2%

Trump's greatest lead since March 8.

polymarket.com/event/presiden…

.Polymarket - Presidential Winner (shift since April 18)

🟥 Trump 56% (+13)
🟦 Biden 38% (-7)
🟨 RFK Jr 2% (-2)
—
Balance of power odds

• Republican sweep: 40% (+4)
• Democratic sweep: 23%
• D Pres, R Senate, D House: 18%
• R Pres, R Senate, D House: 15%
• D Pres, R

🇺🇲 2024 GE: POLLING AVERAGES (5/24)

FiveThirtyEight (with RFK Jr)

• Nevada: Trump +6.7
• North Carolina: Trump +6.3
• Georgia: Trump +5.6
• Arizona: Trump +4.7
• Pennsylvania: Trump +2.1
• Wisconsin: Trump +1.6
• Michigan: Trump +0.8

EC Based on polls
🟥 Trump 312

538 Average: Net Approval Ratings at this time (1,121 days) in office.

1. Eisenhower: +52.1%
2. Nixon: +20.0%
3. Reagan: +17.9%
4. Clinton: +17.0%
5. Obama: +2.5%
6. G.W. Bush: -5.4%
7. Truman: -7.4%
8. Carter: -8.8%
9. Trump: -10.6%
10. H.W. Bush: -11.9%
11. Biden: -17.7%

.Polymarket - Presidential Winner

🟥 Trump 56%
🟦 Biden 38%
🟦 M. Obama 3%
🟨 RFK Jr 2%
—
North Carolina
🟥 Trump 77%
🟦 Biden 23%
.
Georgia
🟥 Trump 65%
🟦 Biden 35%
.
Nevada
🟥 Trump 62%
🟦 Biden 38%
.
Arizona
🟥 Trump 61%
🟦 Biden 39%

polymarket.com/event/presiden…

📊 NATIONAL POLL: Emerson

🟥 Trump 46% [=]
🟦 Biden 44% [+1]
---
With leans
🟦 Biden 50% [+2]
🟥 Trump 50% [-1]

Voters under 30: Biden 63-37%
—
Trends with leans
• April 3: Trump +2
• April 17: Trump +3
• May 23: Tie
—
🟥 Trump 44% [=]
🟦 Biden 39% [-1]
🟨 RFK Jr 6%

.Polymarket - President Election Winner

🟥 Trump 56% (+18)
🟦 Biden 38%
🟨 RFK Jr 2%

Net 20 point swing towards Trump from April 18 and his greatest lead since March 8.

polymarket.com/event/presiden…

📊 FiveThirtyEight Polling Average (5/23)

NATIONAL
🟥 Trump: 41.2% (+1.1)
🟦 Biden: 40.1%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%

• May 23, 2020: Biden +4.3
• Final average: Biden +5.3
• Actual result: Biden +4.5
——
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 43.0% (+6.4)
🟦 Biden 36.6%
🟨 RFK Jr 10.3%

• May 23, 2020: Biden

🇺🇲 2024 GE: [Among Independent voters ]

February
🟥 Trump: 54% (+11)
🟦 Biden: 43%
.
March
🟦 Biden: 53% (+7)
🟥 Trump: 46%
.
May
🟦 Biden: 57% (+14)
🟥 Trump: 43%

Net 25 point swing towards Biden

MULawPoll | 5/6-16 | Registered voters
law.marquette.edu/poll/category/…

📊 NATIONAL POLL: Cygnal Polling & Analytics

🟥 Trump: 46% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 45%

• Always vote: Biden 48-46%
• Pres. year vote: Trump 48-40%
• Suburban voter: Biden 49-42%
• Swing voter: Biden 38-32%
—
🟥 Trump: 41% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥

🇺🇲 2024 GE: UNH Survey Center

NEW HAMPSHIRE
🟦 Biden: 44% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 4%
---
H2H (With leans)
🟦 Biden: 52% (+4)
🟥 Trump: 48%
——
MASSACHUSETTS
🟦 Biden: 55% (+29)
🟥 Trump: 26%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟪 Other: 6%
---
H2H (with leans)
🟦 Biden: 68% (+36)

New Hampshire GE: UNH Survey Center

🟦 Biden 44%
🟥 Trump 41%
🟨 RFK Jr 3%
🟩 Stein 2%
🟨 West 1%
⬜ Undecided 8%
—
Fav/unfav
Biden: 34-54 (-20)
Trump: 35-56 (-21)
RFK Jr: 16-51 (-35)
—
538: #29 (2.6/3.0) | 5/16-20 | 1,120 LV
scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_…

.Polymarket - GOP VP (shift since May 14)

• Tim Scott: 21% (+3)
• Doug Burgum: 19% (-2)
• Tulsi Gabbard: 8% (+4)
• J.D. Vance: 8% (-4)
• V. Ramaswamy: 5% (+3)
• Elise Stefanik: 5% (-1)
• Ben Carson: 4% (=)
• Nikki Haley: 4% (+1)

Who do YOU think should be Trump's VP?
—

📊 Reuters/Ipsos: Biden Job Approval

🟢 Approve 36% [-2]
🔴 Disapprove 59% [+3]

[+/- change vs April]
—
538: #17 (2.8/3.0) | N=1,017 A | 5/17-20
ipsos.com/en-us/reuters-…