Unlike rest of the labor market that experienced hollowing out Healthcare has seen strong growth in middle and upper-middle parts of earnings distribution Powered by fast earnings growth for nurses and midlevels (PAs, NPs, CRNAs, etc)

Healthcare has maintained nearly constant 76% female share, while experiencing partial convergence across occupations Large increase in female share of physicians Offset by smaller increases in male share of nurses and aides

Politicians, the press, and researchers have advocated for a "manufacturing to meds" pivot in the Rust Belt. Pittsburgh, PA, Cleveland, OH, and Rochester, NY are cited as prominent success stories.

We find these high-profile manufacturing-to-meds examples are outliers that do not represent a systematic trend. Healthcare job growth has offset roughly 11% of the decline in manufacturing jobs. This is roughly what you would expect based on its share of the workforce.

Much more in the draft. Check it out 👇 Ungated paper: nmahoney.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/… NBER WP: nber.org/papers/w33583

Healthcare employment in the US has skyrocketed since 1980. Healthcare is a middle-class jobs engine, but "manufacturing-to-meds" transitions are not saving the Rust Belt, from Josh Gottlieb, Neale Mahoney, Kevin Rinz, and Victoria Udalova nber.org/papers/w33583

NBER Josh Gottlieb Kevin Rinz More details 👇

#QJE May 2025, #8, “The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians,” by Gottlieb (Josh Gottlieb), Polyakova (Maria Polyakova), Rinz (Kevin Rinz), Shiplett, and Udalova (Victoria Udalova): doi.org/10.1093/qje/qj…

📢Heavily revised working paper on AI + Zoning —  with AlexBartik and Daniel Milo, we have a new draft of our paper which expands on our method to understand housing regulations with AI. Incudes a new public data release with more housing regulation data:

On May 1–2, BFI’s Health Economics Initiative Conference brought together faculty, researchers & students to share new work in health economics. Organizers: Josh Gottlieb & Matt Notowidigdo ; Keynote: Jonathan Skinner (Dartmouth). ow.ly/CJm250VSRp3 #HealthEconomics #EconTwitter

Thanks to all of our thoughtful speakers, attendees, keynote Jon Skinner DartmouthEcon, co-organizer Matt Notowidigdo, and the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics staff for an outstanding conference!

New work on administrative burdens from Riley League Maggie Shi

Examining the impact of reducing the administrative fragmentation of billing and payment by studying a Medicare reform that consolidated billing processes across service types, from Riley League and Maggie Shi nber.org/papers/w33863

Thanks for having me and for organizing a fantastic conference and panel. I talked about how perceptions of the monetary policy framework have changed during the recent inflationary experiment and beyond, and why it matters. #ECBForum European Central Bank Michael Bauer

For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the thousands: Health care. How taking care of humans became the biggest employer in America, and what it means for the rest of us. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Great story/charts from Lydia DePillis Christine Zhang on how health care ate the American economy. This pair of maps is especially striking.

Very clear article by Lydia DePillis The New York Times discussing our Becker Friedman Institute for Economics / NBER working paper and other aspects of healthcare job growth. For more detail, the full paper together w/ Neale Mahoney Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Kevin Rinz Victoria Udalova is here: gottlieb.ca/papers/HealthC…

Timely read from in The New York Times on the way health care jobs remade the economy, and how the GOP megabill could dent that jobs engine. nytimes.com/interactive/20… 1/2

Dramatic news from CMSGov today---these decisions spill over into private insurance gottlieb.ca/papers/ShadowO… (w/ Jeffrey P. Clemens JPE) and matter for talent allocation: gottlieb.ca/papers/Doctors… QJE Is this good or bad? Depends on which specialties need talent most.