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Good talk but everyone seems to ignore the non tariff barriers.

It is a good print but two caveats: the tariff story is just beginning and related to that Fed reducing rates or not is no longer the interesting story for markets. I hope I am wrong but it looks like a short term move.

So how come we have this correction? Perhaps, the implicit government and not-so-implicit Fed put disappearing has something to do with it, particularly given stretched valuations of some stocks. Watch Russell 2000 and the credit spreads (not looking good)

1/14 Barry Eichengreen: "Ultimately, the fate of the dollar will turn on the willingness of America’s leaders to uphold the rule of law, respect the separation of powers and honour the country’s commitments to its foreign partners." ft.com/content/8a71dc… via @ft

Dire Straits and Eric Clapton - Money for Nothing (Knebworth 1990) Imagine how good you have to be on guitar to get Eric Clapton to play the rhythm for you. This is one of the greatest guitar riffs of all time.

Exactly

The markets think companies are going be worth $5 trillion less than they thought before these tariffs started. If you add in the loss to consumers, a reasonable estimate would probably be something like $30 trillion. How big is all of this in comparison? The loss to the economy

It's common in EM to have a confrontation between markets and the government. The US just successfully stared down markets, which will embolden US policy makers. At the same time, the big shoe to drop is China devaluation. That hasn't happened yet and would send S&P 500 tumbling.

Somehow many start from current acc deficit and wonder how it would be financed. Current acc deficit= financial acc surplus. Make any deficit country uninvestable and watch its current account deficit disappear. Pyrrhic indeed. Lower growth and weaker currency = poorer citizens

I'm normally not a big fan, but this is an absolutely brilliant answer by Larry Summers to the oft-repeated argument that China is somehow "cheating" in trade. In fact it's probably the best answer I've ever heard on this. It goes back to the point I was making

Dün yayında anlattığım konu. Ticaretteki gerginlikler sonucunda küresel parasal sistemde değişiklik kaçınılmaz görünüyor.

Way ahead of his time.

As a recovering Wall Street person, I can tell you that Wall Street people like instant gratification. President Donald J. Trump’ agenda is one for the next one, two, three decades. To bring back precision manufacturing and lift up the middle class.

1/3 Beijing recently told Chinese banks to boost consumer loans as a way of raising the consumption share of GDP. I worried that in the medium term this might lead to a rise in NPLs in... chinabankingnews.com/p/the-future-o…

After school break dance battle.. 😎

🚨 | Pep Guardiola on Maguire's assist vs Bilbao: “I’ve managed legends... Puyol, Kompany, Dias but I’ve never seen a defender assist with that level of unintentional genius. What Maguire did last night can't be coached.”

Nicely explained the connection between the domestic economic issues such as the property market problems in this case and BoP repercussions.

Ray Dalio telling you in plain English that the bond market is fucked.

1/6 Martin Wolf's “pluto-populism”: the rich receive most of the goodies; the poor become poorer; and the fiscal deficit stays huge. The "supply-side" argument in favor of income inequality is that because the rich save more of their income than do... ft.com/content/31f40b…

Required watching regardless of if one agrees with everything him bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…