#GAA Elo modelling - #hurling finals: Meagher Cup: Lancashire (33rd, 429) v. Leitrim (34th, 263) - 68.23% Lancashire win Rackard Cup: Armagh (24th, 913) v. Sligo (30th, 655) - 76.64% Armagh win Ring Cup: Down (16th, 1277) v. Meath (17th, 1261) - 51.84% Down win

#GAA Elo qualifier R3 projections: Mayo (4th, 1750) v Armagh (10th, 1435) - Mayo 84% (just as Monaghan were!…) Kildare (12th, 1429) v Tyrone (3rd, 1851) - Tyrone 81% Westmeath (18th, 1206) v Clare (15th, 1310) - Clare 52% Offaly (23rd, 986) v Laois (14th, 1294) - Laois 72%

According to our Elo model, likely to be the closest game of the weekend… Westmeath (10th, 1558) v Laois (11th, 1533) means Westmeath edge it with just a 52.9% chance of success! Kilkenny 53.2% to win Leinster Limerick 64.2% to win Munster #gaa

I understand most of these words!

#GAA Elo ratings of the last ten #hurling winners 2020: Limerick 2366 2012: Kilkenny 2306 2015: Kilkenny 2280 2017: Galway 2275 2014: Kilkenny 2267 2016: Tipperary 2263 2019: Tipperary 2243 2011: Kilkenny 2220 2018: Limerick 2189 2013: Clare 2061 Limerick GAA The GAA GOATs? 🐐

Ulster SFC: Tyrone 0-10 Derry 1-18 The All-Ireland holders lose in a championship match at home, by more than double scores. Under our model it is the single biggest upset in 12 years of competitive fixtures. Derry gain 127 Elo points, jumping from rank 11 to 9; Tyrone 3 to 5.

#GAA hurling quarter-finals: Galway (2071) 2-19 -🔺+47 Cork (2123) 1-21 - 🔻-47 Clare (2021) 1-24 - 🔺+45 Wexford (2006) 3-14 - 🔻 -45 Semi-finals: ⚾️ Kilkenny (2089) v Clare (2066) 🟨KK 52.65% chance of winning ⚾️ Limerick (2289) v Galway (2118) 🟩LK 68.73% chance of winning

The GAA Rankings database includes models for the last 15 All-Ireland finals, in both football and hurling - and none have ever appeared to be as even as the 2024 deciders. ⚾️ Cork 2255, Clare 2239 🏐 Armagh 1954, Galway 1953 Both are, effectively, statistical dead heats!

The Elo model gave Meath a 5.7% chance of beating Dublin in Portlaoise yesterday. That’s the most improbable win in the 17 seasons of results banked in our database. #gaa

The GAA Rankings model uses 16 years of results to give a chess-style Elo rating to every senior inter county team. We've run 100,000 simulations of each All-Ireland SFC group to produce this estimate of whether each county will progress to the Sam Maguire knockout phase: #gaa

Here, for completeness, are the projections for the Tailteann Cup, following the first full round of fixtures. Carlow’s upset win in Fermanagh puts them in pole position in Group 4. #gaa

Now that the first round of the All-Ireland SFC is complete, here’s the revised projections for how each group will finish. Each group has been simulated 100,000 times based on the probable outcomes of the remaining games: #gaa

Here’s our projection of how the Leinster and Munster SHC tables are likely to finish up, based on 100,000 simulations of each group’s final fixtures. #gaa

Before Sunday’s All-Ireland SFC games, an update of the projected qualifiers from each group… This is based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining games in each group, each based on the data from the GAARankings Elo model. #GAA

Updated models for the All-Ireland SFC #GAA groups, following the full second round of fixtures. Each game simulated 50,000 teams. Group 1 🤯

🏐 #GAA SFC preliminary quarter-finals Kerry (1946) v Cavan (1400) - 96.10% chance of home win Dublin (1895) v Cork (1485) - 92.95% Down (1496) v Galway (1895) - 24.11% Donegal (1924) v Louth (1446) - 94.75%

Now that the last 8 are known, but given group pairs and provincial finals cannot be repeated, here are the odds of the various possible #GAA SFC quarter-final pairs:

#GAA football quarter finals: 🏐 Meath (1584) v Galway (1916) - Meath 17.82% 🏐 Armagh (1948) v Kerry (1951) - Armagh 49.65% 🏐 Monaghan (1646) v Donegal (1932) - Monaghan 21.13% 🏐 Tyrone (1770) v Dublin (1902) - Tyrone 21.44%* (* lower odds as Dublin have home venue)