Here I take a look at geopolitical events and market reaction, but also share a few charts that caught my attention recently.

Thanks Scott Brown, CMT and Frank Cappelleri for letting me share some of your great work!

carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

The $SPX recently logged a six-day losing streak, which is by far the longest string of consecutive losses since it bottomed in Oct’23.

The recent weakness has created short-term oversold conditions...

...and prompted a potential buy signal for one popular indicator.

The $SPX pattern since October'22:

🟢Uptrend
🔴Uptrend line break
🔴Pullback
🟢Higher low
👉Repeat

🔻35 $NDX components fell at least 5% last week, the most for a calendar week in 2024.

🔻But that was just slightly more than the week ending 1/5/24, when 31 dropped 5% or more.
🔺That marked a key trading low, especially for large cap tech.

🔻For even more perspective, back in

'Just a normal correction' looks and feels a whole lot different when it actually happens than you think it will beforehand.

$SPX What's done is done.

🟨 It's always about the next trade - or this case - the next Darvas box.

$SMH Full-on support discovery mode.

The $SPX started the day with these eight bearish streaks:

🔻2 straight days of the 14-period, 2-hour RSI < 30
🔻3 straight days of the 14-day RSI < 50
🔻4 straight losses
🔻4 straight closes below the mid-point
🔻4 straight days of the 20-DMA sloping lower
🔻6 straight negative

📈📉 𝗧𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀: crude oil #CL_F , gold #GC_F , & #bitcoin $BTC

Frank Cappelleri provides the levels to watch in each with Nicole Petallides 👇

From late October through early April, each 1% loss for the $SPX was immediately followed by a 1% gain.

The dip was bought without hesitation, and buyers were quickly rewarded.

Things have changed over the last two weeks.

👇Check it out via YouTube:

Timecodes
0:00 -

The most telling stat today is this.

Number of S&P 500 stocks making:

🔵20 day highs: 1
🔴20 day lows: 264

After 1% declines since the Oct’23 low:

🔴12/20/23 -1.5%
🟢12/21/23 +1.0%

🔴1/31/24 -1.6%
🟢2/1/24 +1.2%

🔴2/13/24 -1.4%
🟢2/14/24 +1.0%

🔴3/5/24 -1.0%
🟡3/6/24 +0.5%
🟢3/7/24 +1.0%

🔴4/4/24 -1.2%
🟢4/5/24 +1.0%

🔴4/12/24 -1.5%
🔴4/15/24 -1.2%

Fun lunch in NYC with some great friends.

Frank Cappelleri Matt Cerminaro Josh Schafer caleb silver Sonu Varghese Jay Woods

79% Downside Day at 2:30. Since Friday was a 90% Downside Day, another 90% Downside Day today — and only another 90% Downside Day — would be significant.

New for 2024: $AAPL has transformed into an inverse market ETF.

An important distinction:

🔻The $SPX’s uptrend LINE has been broken.

🟢 But the index’s UPTREND remains intact.

The market’s character is never static, which has been evident all along.

In the first 12 trading days since the 10/2723 low, the SPX logged five 1% moves and had

'The equity markets have been able to withstand a rate hike so far, but we don't want to see [bond yields] accelerated again because we saw what happened in 2022,' Frank Cappelleri to Frank Holland

If you need to ask someone whether we’re in a bear market, we’re not.