#climatecasino time!

For those who like to make fake-wagers about the end of the world with their friends or colleagues, here are my 50-50 over/under lines for the yearly global surface temperature anomaly, 2025 - 2050.

These fake-betting lines may change as more data comes in.

For those who don't understand what the 'Paris Limit of 1.5°C' means, and that includes most politicians, members of the IPCC, climate scientists and pretty much everyone else, I encourage you to read this:

climatecasino.net/2024/01/how-ho…

Your 'doom quote' for today:

'That the sea will become a killer is a given. Barring a reduction of emissions, we could see at least four feet of sea-level rise and possibly eight by the end of the century.'

--David Wallace-Wells, The Unihabitable Earth

Your 'moment of doom' for June 3, 2024 ~ Too late.

'Humankind faces catastrophic changes in climate patterns, sea level, ocean acidity, public health, and ecosystems...but so far there seems to be virtually no real effort aimed at curbing this disaster.'
njtoday.news/2024/06/03/art…

Breaking News!
Code Yikes!

As of June 1st, the 365-day running mean for the global surface temperature has reached 1.63°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.

Also, the daily anomaly is back up over 1.7°C.

The physics geek in me is very happy.

Dear Gemini, What was the diameter of the universe when the cosmic microwave background was formed?

For those wondering, no, the record anomaly of 4.47 SD's was not broken. Yesterday's SST of 22.45°C dropped the SST anomaly to *only* 4.31 SD's.

The thing about rare events is they are rare (for a while). The next time massive SST f&%kery happens, I'll be sure to post it.

Yep -- 70.6% of poll respondents think civilization will make it to 2030 (or beyond). I agree.

But certainly some countries will face insurmountable issues by 2030, whether heatwaves, flooding or drought, while millions of climate refugees will be in search of a new home.

Your 'moment of doom' for June 2, 2024 ~ Generation doom.

'It’s product recall time for some of these models, things are moving more quickly [than predicted] . . . we need to move on to the next generation of climate scenarios'
ft.com/content/b4bf18…

Well, that about does it.

May, 2024, came in at 1.51°C above the pre-industrial baseline, making May the 11th straight month above 1.5°C and the 12th straight monthly record high.