#ICYMI Gov't & Politics UMD Associate Professor David Karol recently chatted with Washington Examiner about Gov. Wes Moore‘s response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, & how it may boost 'his national profile as a possible 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.' washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns…

Pumped to moderate 'The Road Ahead' panel featuring Paul Begala, b-boy bouiebaisse, Donna F. Edwards, Sarah Longwell, Chuck Todd as part of the Center for Politics at UVA 25th Anniversary (& 50 years of Larry Sabato UVA) Gala Weekend.
Livestream starts 1 PM EDT Saturday:
livestream.com/tavco/sabatosc…

Check it out! I’m doing a newsletter with two super-educated, ultra-successful experts on politics: Jonathan Bernstein and Julia Azari. I am presumably there for light relief, but I’ll try to be interesting. Please take a peek and consider subscribing.

open.substack.com/pub/goodpoliti…

Historically, resignation from Congress absent health issues, scandal, or appointment to another position wasn't the norm. Retiring legislators served out their terms. Less true of Republicans in this dysfunctional House. politico.com/live-updates/2…

I comment on the U.S. Senate race in Maryland in this piece by Naomi Lim

washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns…

Problem with this is that there are far more good national polls than battleground state ones. Trump is also unlikely to win popular vote by a couple of points and lose the Electoral College. So national polls ARE somewhat informative, esp. re trends, but stick to averages.

Dots don't connect themselves! Campaigns are sometimes about helping voters do that.

At a certain point, people really need to stop calling non-Trumpy Republicans 'Establishment'. Because that's not what this is. At least preface it with 'Erstwhile' or something.

There have been many studies of Congressional retirement, but they've been about the decision not to run again by legislators who still finished out their terms, albeit with increasingly long lame-duck periods, esp. in the Senate. Just quitting seems to be on the increase lately.

How many disgruntled ex-staffers/appointees/allies have leaked against or outright denounced Trump? If that stuff was fatal to him, we wouldn't be where we are.

Katie Britt has an odd and histrionic delivery. Wild oscillations in tone.

Guest Univ. of Maryland Prof. David Karol said President Biden conveyed an overall impression of being in charge and being in focus.

Unusual for President to discuss a predecessor or opponent in the SOTU, but there hasn't been a predecessor/opponent since 1892 & usually at the time of the speech the opposition has yet to select its nominee. Sometimes a front runner is clear,but it's not over. This year it is.

Rep. Porter outspent her 2022 GOP opponent $28 million to $3 million. Even factoring in independent expenditures in his favor she had an almost 3-1 financial advantage. Was that race rigged too?

This is not a persuasive explanation of McConnell's motivation. Especially not the abortion part, but the centrality of policy motives in general. To the extent he really cares about foreign policy he is closer to Biden. His status among Republicans seems more plausible.

They COULD vote yes on something so Johnson wouldn't need Democratic votes to keep the lights on, but have chosen otherwise. Spending levels will be higher, but their fans never figure that out & reward them for staying pure. That’s not being 'powerless'; it's a political choice.

This is not a mystery. For some commentators it is sympathy for Palestinians, for many it's the great need for SOME campaign drama. We haven't had nomination campaigns in both parties this uneventful since 1944 and they NEED a story.