2. The pattern is a deliberately or incompetently over-egged govt announcement which is so stupid or outrageous it will have a calamitous effect. Outcry and reality intervene. The government “compromises”. But the new plan is still a terrible one.

3. It looks to the media like a government climbdown and a victory for the campaigners. That’s the story. They move on. All the energy goes out of the campaign. We’re stuck with the compromise, no matter how terrible it is.

4. We’ve just been through it with the new Safety of Rwanda Bill. Stand back a minute: Parliament is forcing the courts to find the Rwandan government will stick to its word even though the courts just found the Rwandan government doesn’t stick to its word.

5. But because it allows the courts to prevent, for example, removal of a person who is at risk of torture or inhuman or degrading treatment by the Rwandan government, it’s a compromise. We’re stuck with it.

6. Then the govt announced out of the blue with no consultation that a British citizen would in future have to earn £37,500 to sponsor a foreign spouse or partner rather than the current £18,600. Minimum wage is c.£20,000. Around 3/4 people can’t afford that much.

7. The outcome is that British citizens who fall in love with a foreign national cannot live in Britain with that loved one. They either have to find a country abroad they can both live in or live apart. Including if they have children. Outcry ensues.

8. The announcement is so out of the blue that, like a juggernaut that cannot turn, the media continue with their current obsession of net migration, meaning skilled workers and dependents. Little attention is initially paid to the announcement and so we try to kick up a fuss.

9. It gets worse. Some idiot govt spokesman suggests the new rule might even apply to spouses and partners already in the UK, meaning that established families will have to separate or leave the UK. The details are undecided even in govt, it becomes clear.

10. So there’s a short window in which some work can be done to mitigate the damage and pressurise the government. Reunite Families UK 🧡 do some amazing work on this. It’s exhausting but they do it anyway.

11. And now the govt announces its “climbdown”: the outrageous new rule won’t apply to spouses and partners already sponsored, only those applying for the first time. AND the income requirement will initially be lower: “only” £29,000.

12. That is still a MASSIVE increase. It still massively discriminates against northerners, Scots, the Welsh, women, carers. It’s still way higher than the minimum wage. It’s a brutal interference by the government with the private lives of its citizens.