Davos is basically all the people who have created the problems, denied their existence and then called us names for pointing them out... explaining what the problems are and how we desperately need to fix them.

$ETH is trading on a dense cost basis cluster, a key breakeven zone for many holders. Holding here suggests absorption and base building, but a breakdown would move price into thinner support where underwater supply may derisk. Next move hinges on this level.

The dread I see from bitcoiners (and the football spiking from the haters) is very short-sighted to me given that since 2022 (right before the BlackRock ETF filing) Bitcoin is up 429%, gold 177%, Silver 350%, QQQ 140%. In other words bitcoin spanked everything so bad in '23 and

Stress Builds Below Resistance $BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 glassno.de/3Zp9oBD

As we noted in this week’s Week On-Chain, $90K was a slippery zone based on options data. Since then, $BTC has fallen to $81K. Let’s break down the other structural factors behind this decline🧵

Lads, I have made a significant sacrifice to the metal gods today. Cannot disclose the sacrifice yet, but I have officially bought THE top in Gold

🫠

$BTC slipped below the avg cost basis of US spot ETF holders (~$84k), putting ETF buyers in net unrealised loss. First real stress test for a cohort that’s been resilient, unfazed bidders. Key now: do dips get bought, or do we see some panic? glassno.de/4ka5RQV

Perpetual funding has turned materially negative across exchanges as $BTC retraced to $74k, signalling a clear unwind in long positioning and a shift toward defensive leverage. A recovery likely requires a persistent spot bid, not just a funding reset. glassno.de/4r3igck

$BTC MVRV Z-Score has now compressed to its lowest level since Oct 2022, last seen as price traded near $29K. This is a solid reset in unrealised profitability, with the market reverting toward fair value after the prior expansion. glassno.de/4c7xl7Q

Personally, not wild about how $SPX is looking. There's a decent chance we see some meaningful downside.

Bears In Control The $BTC bear market rages on as profitability resets, realised losses rise, spot demand stays weak, and leverage unwinds. Options keep pricing elevated downside risk. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 glassno.de/469dce3

Hot off the press, ladies and gents, enjoy.

another morning where crypto rebalances us to the lower tax bracket gm

The LTH cost-basis heatmap highlights a dense support cluster in the low-$60Ks, where long-term holders are heavily concentrated. Overhead, supply thickens near ~$80K, forming a key resistance level. This range defines the current supply battleground. glassno.de/4r1nkh1

James O’Brien asks what it’s like for an ethnic minority. Let me tell him: It’s infuriating that naive, self-righteous commentators like James O'Brien have championed the most reckless immigration policy in human history which predictably has led to an organic cultural and ethnic

$BTC NUPL is back in Hope/Fear (~0.18), showing profit cushions are thin. This regime tends to be reactive: rallies meet sell pressure, and downside can extend as conviction fades. Chart of the Week available below👇 glassno.de/4txMBRD

Chart of the Week: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (BTC) Give it a watch, and give some feedback👇 glassno.de/4txMBRD

Unrealised Capital Gains Tax has to be one of the dumbest policy suggestions I have ever come across. It shows ZERO understanding of reality. How the FUCK do you pay the tax when you have not sold the asset yet?