The second half of our preseason award picks, in which we buy into Caleb Williams hype and I try (and fail) to take off my red-and-gold colored glasses. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/preseason-…

Updated DVOA projections for 2024 are now posted. The San Francisco #49ers are our Super Bowl favorites. Since the Almanac was published, the Jets and Patriots have gone down, the Falcons have gone up. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/2024-dvoa-…

Priors I can't shake for 2024 riversmccown.substack.com/p/priors-i-can…

NFL teams make better 4th down decisions in preseason games that *don't even matter*. In other words: when coaches are freed from the objective of winning, they sometimes end up making more optimal winning decisions! Thread below on the data, methodology, and results ⬇️

We've nearly made it! Chiefs-Ravens kicks off oh so very soon! The DVOA Discord is up and running -- the haven for those who used to be Football Outsiders. Come hang out with some folks who take their NFL very seriously, but in a not-too-serious way. discord.gg/PufRcXTXxB

Bear status: poked.

Brock Purdy actually had a higher passer rating vs. man coverage than Dak did, but (and no offense to Mr. Purdy), I’m giving Dak the Shanahan >>>>>>>> McCarthy bump.

Friday night football? Well, if the game in Brazil seems strange to us, I suppose it's only a state of mind. Ah well. We'll be checking out this Packers-Eagles game in the DVOA Discord -- join us! discord.gg/PufRcXTXxB