Noteworthy that Israel struck air defense equipment associated with an Iranian nuclear site days after an IRGC commander threatened that attacks against such sites could cause Iran to revise its nuclear doctrine (ie, build nuclear weapons).

The war in Ukraine has amplified concerns about nuclear proliferation, but how worried should we be?

In a new IFRI paper, I sort through proliferation risk factors, analyze which are most concerning, and apply these insights to East Asia & the Mideast. ifri.org/sites/default/…

reuters.com/world/middle-e…

Iran is selling more oil than at any time in the past six years, almost all of it to China: 'The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention. If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China.' ft.com/content/00bb56…

5. #Russia using its #UNSC seat to shield #Iran . Same at #IAEA . Bad for holding Iran accountable.

4. #Iran is helping #Russia evade #sanctions . Sharing best practices on ship-ship oil transfers, front companies, de-dollarizing trade, and alternatives to #SWIFT . Will undermine effectiveness of U.S.-led sanctions efforts.

3. #Russia no longer helpful to U.S. and #Europe on nuclear nonproliferation. Iran is creeping toward nuclear threshold status and #Russia more likely to facilitate than moderate.

More intrusive monitoring & surveillance mechanisms would reduce this risk. The US & its partners should be focused on pressuring & incentivizing Iran to enhance transparency now to reduce the chances of miscalculation & deter breakout. 3/3

This was a short delay - Grossi said inspections resumed on April 16. But it highlights how Iran could bar inspectors from sites in the future. Delays increase the risk of miscalculation & could be used by Iran to attempt to produce weapons-grade uranium between inspections. 2/

Understandable that IAEA DG Grossi kept inspectors away from #Iran 's nuclear sites after Tehran attacked Israel. But with Iran's breakout at less than a week, this situation underscores the critical importance of enhancing transparency & monitoring. 1/

straitstimes.com/world/iaea-chi…

U.S. officials expect a possible Israeli response toIran’s attack over the weekend to be limited in scope and most likely involve strikes against Iranian military forces and Iranian-backed proxies outside Iran, four U.S. officials told NBC News. Courtney Kube Mosheh M. Gains

My latest, co-written w/ Tristan Anderson Volpe, in TWQ: We examine the magnitude of South Korea’s nuclear latency and leverage over the United States, and offer recommendations for how the US should think about managing allied proliferation risks twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/2024/04/…

Responding to Biesan Abu-Kwaik بيسان أبو كويك's question regarding the possibility of #Israel targeting a nuclear facility in #Iran , IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️'s Rafael MarianoGrossi says: 'Well of course we are always concerned about this possibility. What I can tell you is that our inspectors in Iran were informed by the

Was yesterday’s coordinated air defense against #Iran technically the first, live multi-lateral combat operation with #Israel & Arab states together?

Yesterday was a lot of firsts, but I’m wondering if this is also one of them. Shashank Joshi would know.

#Iran Israel

“Israel has already informed the Americans and governments in the region that its response is inevitable. Its military options include launching drones at Iran, and long-range airstrikes on Iran, possibly on military bases or nuclear installations” economist.com/middle-east-an…

Did Natanz and Fordow write this tweet?

You can read my and my colleagues’ (very) initial reactions to Iran’s strikes on Israel this evening. Holly Dagres Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش Tom Warrick Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 + Dan Mouton & Clarke Cooper The Atlantic Council Middle East Initiatives Atlantic Council