Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/04):

LAB: 306 (+104) - 39.2%
CON: 251 (-114) - 33.9%
SNP: 47 (-1) - 3.9%
LDM: 19 (+8) - 9.6%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 5.9%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.9%
Others: 2 (+2) - 3.0%

LAB 16 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Councils up in the 2022 Local Elections by Control:

Election Maps UK Forgot how well the CDU did in Wales and Scotland last time

New product this week: Predictions for sale for each ward at the local elections in May. Ideal for candidates and local parties. Contact us for details and pricing. electoralcalculus.co.uk/services_conta…

How each parties predicted number of seats has changed since the 2019 election...

p.s. please can we have a Scottish Westminster Voting Intention out soon thanks huns xx
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Spent some time speaking to people about why Labour lost Ancoats and Beswick at a by-election last month. Hard to say whether the result will be reflected elsewhere in Manchester this May - it could just be a blip, but should ring alarm bells #LDReporter
manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-m…

Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (15/02)

LAB: 305 (+103) - 38.9%
CON: 242 (-123) - 33.3%
SNP: 57 (+9) - 4.2%
LDM: 19 (+8) - 10.2%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.6%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.2%
RFM: 0 (=) - 4.1%
Others: 2 (+2) - 2.4%

LAB 21 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

🚨 Poll of 101 MPs 🚨

If you toss a fair coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?

25%: 52%
50%: 32%
Other Answers: 7%
Don't Know: 10%

Via @SavantaComRes, 17 Nov - 18 Jan.

Apologies to MPs that follow me, but Christ alive how stupid are (almost half) of you?

How the Conservative Party have faired in the polls since GE2019:

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (+2)
CON: 31% (-3)
LDM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 6% (+1)

Via Opinium, 12-14 Jan.
Changes w/ 5-7 Jan.

Largest Labour lead in any poll since December 2013.

Greater Manchester’s vaccine rate masks Manchester’s, which is the lowest (I think) outside London; 42% of Mancs still haven’t had their first two jabs. Have spoken to more than one local official who’s worried

Britain Predicts — model update:

Labour the largest party

LAB: 281 MPs (+79)
CON 276 (-89)
SNP: 55 (+7)
LDEM: 14 (+3)

Drilldown:
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

Don't let the hashtag progressive alliance folk see this

Our new monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservative neck-and-neck in vote share for first time in a year. Cons predicted to win more seats, but Keir Starmer more likely to be PM. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…

Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (30/11)

CON: 300 (-65) - 36.9%
LAB: 260 (+58) - 36.6%
SNP: 55 (+7) - 4.3%
LDM: 10 (-1) - 8.9%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.7%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.3%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.6%

CON 26 Short.
Changes w/ GE2019.
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Britain Predicts — model update:

Hung parliament

CON: 295 MPs (-70)
LAB:265 (+63)
SNP: 55 (+7)
LDEM: 11 (-)

Drilldown:
newstatesman.com/politics/elect…

Nowcast Model + Interactive Map (23/11)

CON: 293 (-72) - 36.5%
LAB: 267 (+65) - 36.6%
SNP: 55 (+7) - 4.3%
LDM: 10 (-1) - 8.9%
PLC: 5 (+1) - 0.7%
GRN: 1 (=) - 6.8%
RFM: 0 (=) - 3.4%

Changes w/ GE2019.
electionmaps.uk/nowcast

✍️ Morning analysis from @bnhwalker:

Labour now leads in most polls, but it owes more to Tory weakness than it does to Labour strength.

> Con Leavers are going undecided, not Lab
> Three in ten still don't have an opinion on Keir Starmer

Read:
newstatesman.com/politics/polli…

Hello 2010 newstatesman.com/politics/elect…