"It’s a weird economic situation right now, because GDP and consumers and business investment are all booming, just fantastic, 3% growth" Jason Furman tells Semafor today -- so i'm glad we now agree on the lack of substantial evidence of crowding out hampering the U.S. economy.

An underrated point about the downward revision to employment numbers is it means productivity was being underestimated previously — we have room to grow and it’s time for the Fed to start cutting.

The fundamental issue is this: we don’t know if a) the 16/20 polling error is still there, b) pollsters fixed it, or c) they overcorrected. Without knowing that, anything inside of 3-4 points is who the hell knows. I can paint a Harris blowout scenario, and a Trump win scenario.

New w Kadia Goba: why Harris + Trump will think twice before filling out their Cabinet w Congress members Slim majorities Tough Senate confirmations Cleaver: “Would be unfortunate if we sought to mess up our majority because of ambition and asininity" semafor.com/article/09/05/…

In Congress? Looking for a White House promotion next year? Don't count on it. via Burgess Everett Kadia Goba semafor.com/article/09/05/…

I think most people don't have a sense of just how fast this sector is growing.

You should take all that Cabinet shortlist talk about members of Congress with a big grain of salt, per Kadia Goba and Burgess Everett:

Nobody smarter or more understandable on this stuff, and he only said “serially correlated” twice Jason Furman

Hunter Biden: "I will not subject my family to more pain, more invasions of privacy and needless embarrassment.  For all I have put them through over the years, I can spare them this, and so I have decided to plead guilty."

Notably addressing a local Michigan station

A new national poll from Morning Consult: Harris leads Trump 49% to 46%. Morning Consult just "switched" to a likely voter screen; their weekly tracking was using registered voters until now, so no direct comparison. (Their late August poll of RVs was Harris 48/44.)

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SCOOP: NPR has ID'd the two Trump campaign staffers involved in an altercation at Arlington National Cemetery last week that Trump insists did not happen. One of them is a deputy campaign manager. More with Quil Lawrence+Tom Bowman: npr.org/2024/09/05/nx-…

Trump "openly says these things that we need to talk to our relatives about. And all of you know, I need to talk to my relatives too, trust me on this. Nothing makes you more Midwestern than having your family be on this stuff,” Walz said at his Erie rally tonight.

"It doesn't surprise me that Donald Trump did not do a damn thing on Labor Day," Walz said in Erie. "He took the day off, which he should thank organized labor for that day off. If I were him, I would be hiding down in Mar-A-Lago, too. I wouldn't want to face working people."

I’ve asked the Trump campaign if they have more specific policy details to share. Here’s some of what a Harris spox offers on this issue: - bring back a $3,600 Child Tax Credit for working families - expanded $6,000 tax cut for families with newborn children.

More local media for Walz — seems like natural spot through election day