Hey everyone, it's been a while! I decided to study the impact of false recall on polling this week and found that pollsters that don't account for it tend to show overly-stable poll numbers. A simple polling average thus underestimates the real volatility of public opinion.

Latest forecast for next month's German federal election Vote shares (change with 2017) CDU: 23% (-10) SPD: 21% (-) GRN: 18% (+9) FDP: 13% (+2) AFD: 11% (-2) LNK: 7% (-2)

Our latest forecast for next Sunday's federal election in Germany makes the SPD the likely largest party, with an SPD/Green/FDP coalition the most likely government. Vote shares (+/- vs 2017) SPD: 26% (+5) CDU: 21% (-12) GRN: 16% (+7) FDP: 12% (+1) AFD: 11% (-2) LNK: 6% (-3)

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NEW: Labour now hold their largest poll lead over the Conservatives since the 2019 election. Poll averages (vs. 11 Nov) LAB: 37% (+2) CON: 35% (-2) LDM: 9% (-) GRN: 7% (-2) RFM: 5% (+2) 2024 forecast (vs. 2019) CON: 40% (-4) LAB: 35% (+2) LDM: 8% (-4) GRN: 6% (+3) RFM: 4% (+2)

Looks like I might have to start creating another political compass of Conservative MPs...

Hey everyone, I haven’t posted on here in a while, but for the time being some of my forecasting work is over at Patrick Flynn, so be sure to give me a follow if you haven’t already!

Conservative leadership election endorsement leaderboard, coloured by who MPs backed in July. Rishi Sunak: 38 Boris Johnson: 37 Penny Mordaunt: 15 90 / 357 MPs (25%) have endorsed a candidate so far.