More new research! Colombia’s largest rebel group demobilized in 2016; today, FARC splinter groups have emerged as a serious threat. Why? Frank Wyer develops and tests a theory of “middle-out” fragmentation, facilitated by profits in the illicit economy. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

VIP is still welcoming applications for the spring, and we've now extended the deadline to January 10th!

Happening tomorrow (2/20)! See quoted tweet for details on how to sign up and participate.

NEW - Who’s to Blame? Post-conflict Violence, Political Messaging, and Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements - cup.org/4bfynwh "How do episodes of post-conflict violence affect public support for peace?" - Frank Wyer #OpenAccess

With >65% of the votes in, Noboa is leading by a comfortable margin in the 2nd round of Ecuador's presidential race. Somewhat surprising given the close result in the 1st round & pre-election polling. Interested to unpack the results & see where he picked up support.