Getting rid of the NAM which is old but still performing admirably would be a net loss to the meteorology community. While I do not have the running figures on RRFS, as Jeff mentioned it has notable biases amongst many other issues that won't be resolved prior to 2026.

Air Force recon finds that the area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is well-defined though fairly weak. The wave axis attached to it will likely cause the low to elongate and jump around at times. However, if trends persist, a TC is likely to form later today or tomorrow.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located over the Bay of Campeche, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Here's another view of the PDS tornado-warned storm minutes ago from Paige Berdomas🌪 #SDwx cyclonePORT

The helical motion in the condensing funnel here is insane

Tropical Storm #Barry Advisory 4: Aircraft Data Indicates Depression Has Become Tropical Storm Barry. Heavy Rains Continuing Over Eastern Mexico For the Next Several Days. hurricanes.gov

The official NOAA "budget request" to Congress (which is a detailed version of the "President's Budget" would be devastating, and basically end all research and development. Purportedly, the proposal moves a lot of weather research and development under NWS, but doing so while

Newly named Tropical Storm #Mun is trying to vertically align itself as intense convection builds upshear into a mid-level core. Notice how the MLC and LLC appear to be rotating around eachother -- this sort of motion is called precession and is a key part of how TCs align.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Newly formed Tropical Depression 03L is rather tilted in the vertical due to some 20kt of wind shear. You can see its mid-level center well offshore beneath the deep convection on land-based radar -- note the subtle rotation at 30.5N/78.0W here:

Tropical Storm #Chantal’s low level center has become exposed by strong wind shear. This LLC exists within a broader circulation though, and it will be worth watching if a new center tightens up beneath the bulk of the convection, where radar reveals robust mid-level rotation.

The warming of the waters to the east of Japan over the course of the past month has been remarkable, with the 26C isotherm rocketing north over the course of the animation. This projects negatively onto the PDO and explains the recent plunge that index has taken.

Here's that sounding, but with the temperature at every level cooled by a mere one degree C (with RH held constant). PWAT: 6.4% lower Freezing level: 2.6% lower MUCAPE: 20.7% lower A warming planet means more potent environments for excessive rainfall events to tap into.

CSU reduces seasonal #hurricane forecast a bit but still predicts slightly above-normal Atlantic season, with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major (Category 3+ hurricanes): tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-… Relatively warm Atlantic and likely absence of #ElNino the primary factors.

The main reason for CSU's slight reduction in their Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast is due to strong observed and forecast Caribbean shear. Strong Caribbean shear in June-July is typically associated with reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.

The western Mediterranean marine heatwave is justifiably getting a lot of attention, but the North Pacific warmth is extreme as well - and over a much larger area. The incredible warmth from Japan eastward has driven the daily PDO index to a new record low value (1981-present).