There are 14 by-elections today. These 4 by elections should be very interesting.
Tshwane Ward 92 (Arcadia) DA vs EFF vs ANC
Cederberg Ward 2 (Citrusdal) ANC vs DA vs PA
Rustenburg Ward 45 (Photsaneng) ANC vs EFF
Steve Tshwete Ward 10 (Eastdene) ANC vs MHRF vs EFF vs MK
DA holds Ward 17 (Welgevonden Estate Cloetesville) Stellenbosch, Cape Winelands: DA 96% (75%) ANC 3% (2%) MK 1% ARA 0 (<1%). Poll: 19% (56%). DA near perfect score on a bad weather day in Stellenbosch.
ANC holds Ward 17 (Mmakau) Madibeng in Bojanala, North West: ANC 74% (61%) EFF 26% (17%). Poll: 28% (39%). Save Madibeng (11%) not on ballot. This ward is close to the Gauteng border by Ga-Rankuwa. Another fine Bojanala showing for the ANC.
DA holds Ward 58 (Rondebosch Kenilworth), Cape Town: DA 98% (84%) ANC 1% (3%) ARA <1% (<1%). Poll: 19% (58%). DA resolute on the Rondebosch Common on a stormy voting day.
ANC holds Ward 7 (Tumahole Mbeki), Ngwathe in Fezile Dabi in the Free State: ANC 64% (56%) ACT 31% EFF 5% (13%). DA (16%) not on ballot. Poll: 38% (42%). Very low turnout in VDs where DA did well in 2021. ANC and ACT will be satisfied and the EFF disappointed here.
DA wins Cederberg ward off the ANC. Ward 2 (Citrusdal) Cederberg, West Coast:
DA 41% (16%)
ANC 39% (44%)
PA 20% (3%)
ARA <1%.
DA win by 46 votes. Cederberg Eerste (29%) not on ballot.
Poll: 46% (55%)
ANC pipped the DA here in May on provincial ballot.
Great result for DA
uMkhonto WeSizwe have a second councillor. They have their first councillor beyond KwaZulu-Natal. They have shocked the ANC and the EFF in a Rustenburg by-election in a marginal ANC ward. Full result to follow.
DA holds Ward 92 (Arcadia Hatfield) in Tshwane,
DA 59% (34%)
EFF 19% (17%)
ANC 17% (25%)
MK 4%
OHM <1% (<1%)
Bolsheviks <1% (0%)
Action SA (16%) not on ballot.
Poll: 12% (32%)
The DA did best in the 3 VDs with the highest relative turnout.
Key win for the DA
MK Party shock ANC & EFF in Rustenburg ward. Ward 45 (Photsaneng Marikana) Rustenburg:
MK 43%
ANC 33% (44% PR)
EFF 24% (35% PR).
Poll: 39% (35%).
MK won the ward with an emphatic showing in the village of Thekwane
They now have a 2nd councillor and their 1st cllr beyond KZN
ANC holds Ward 17 (Mangweni) Nkomazi, Ehlanzeni in Mpumalanga
ANC 81% (87% PR)
MK 16%
EFF 3% (7% PR)
IFP <1%
Poll: 47% (47%)
ANC remain dominant in Ehlanzeni but MK have a solid solid showing.
By-election took place because the ward cllr was murdered during a home robbery.
Independent Andrew Akkers shocks the DA in eThekwini. Ward 34 (Greenwood Park Sea Cow Lake),
Ind-Akkers 43%
MK 19%
ANC 18% (27%)
DA 15% (39%)
AMC 4%
Poll: 26% (42%)
Akkers is a community activist & ratepayers leader. Sensational result.
The 2nd story here is MK beating ANC
ANC holds W10 (Eastdene Hlalamnandi) Steve Tshwete, Nkangala in Mpumalanga:
ANC 52% (39%)
MK 20%
MHRF 17% (19%)
EFF 11% (17%)
DA (21%) not on ballot.
Poll: 30% (37%)
Great result for the ANC in Middelburg.
DA voters did not flock to MHRF.
MK beat MHRF & EFF for 2nd place
DA holds Ward 30 (Hartbeespoortdam Ifafi), Madibeng in the North West:
DA 56% (65%)
ANC 41% (16%)
MK 3%
Poll: 31% (47%)
Massive turnout differential in favour of the ANC in Sunway saw the ANC give the DA a scare in a safe DA ward. Very low DA turnout in DA strongholds.
DA holds Ward 87 (Greenside Parkview), Johannesburg:
DA 83% (71%)
Rise Mzansi 10%
EFF 4% (4%)
ANC 3% (9%)
Action SA (10%) not on ballot.
Poll: 20% (49%)
DA dominant in this large ward.
Very low poll in Auckland Park where EFF did well on May 29
Rise Mzansi up 1% pt. from May
DA holds Ward 89 (Weltevreden Park Constantia Kloof) Johannesburg:
DA 96% (69%)
ANC 2% (5%)
MK 1%
OHM 1%
Action SA (12%) not on ballot.
Poll: 17% (49%)
DA boss Ward 89 like Ward 89 hero Tatjana Smith bosses the breaststroke.
Key Takeaways
MK win a Bojanala, North West ward off ANC
DA very strong in Gauteng & Western Cape By-Elections. They also win WC ward off ANC.
Independent shocks the DA in eThekwini
MK send a warning to the ANC in eThekwini
ANC resolute in other Bojanala wards and in Mpumlanga
ANC holds Ward 26 (Mogogelo Ratjiepan), Moretele in the North West:
ANC 58% (58% PR)
MK 25%
EFF 17% (27% PR)
Poll: 47% (46%)
MK hurting the EFF in a ward which close to both the Gauteng and Limpopo border. Encouraging for MK.
ANC resolute in Moretele
Here is my article. Every by-election analyzed.
From MK to the DA, from the ANC to the PA, from the EFF to an Independent upset. It is all here.
dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-0…
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