Valuation spreads (how cheaply value stocks trade relative to growth stocks) measured as the Price/Book ratio of value stocks divided by growth stocks in the US. "On average, US value stocks have traded at a 78% discount (i.e., 22 cents on the dollar) relative to growth stocks

“I Did Not Predict What Is Going on in Privates” And to be clear there was no double entendre intended. aqr.com/Insights/Persp…

Over the last century the smallest stocks (green, LHS) have beaten the biggest stocks (red, LHS) by six times (blue, RHS). But not in a straight line. The market has cycled. And the cycles were long. The blue line shows the small versus big market cycles. When the blue line

“A Model for Passive That Breaks the Market”: “Passive funds do not base their investment decisions on any notion of fundamental value… Once the passive share reaches around 65%, index volatility may increase sharply. At 90% share, an increase in volatility at cubic speed is

You think the S&P 500 Index is too concentrated? Try going to another country for a while. The US is one of the *least* concentrated markets. Here's countries ranked by the % of market made up by top 10 biggest stocks, via @psarofagis in a banger note out today that is part of

The great Clifford Asness with a humble piece that properly dissects the reality of private markets. The old days of ZIRP + American fat on companies are dead. These PE firms need to actually create value. Not just smush assets together. Very tough business. And it's spread

"If You Can't Beat 'It, Stack 'It" Quantica's latest on why the cost of diversification depends on how you fund it, not the diversifier itself. Worth your time. quantica-capital.com/en/publication…

Lessons for rich families from a private banker ft.trib.al/9l2kF5U | opinion

Cool resource for understanding a country atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/704

The global dynamics of LNG imports & exports

My whole career I’ve wondered why “margins” gets 1000x more attention than asset turns when they have equal contribution to ROIC.

"Bayesian Kelly Criterion with Parameter Uncertainty: A Robust Framework for Position Sizing Under Estimation Risk": "The classical Kelly criterion provides an optimal solution for position sizing... A rigorous Bayesian framework... explicitly accounts for estimation risk."

"Systematic Reversal and Industry Momentum", papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Based on a lineage study of 447,000 English people from 1600–2026, the descendants of the wealthy remain wealthy after five generations, and can expect to have above-average wealth for 10–12 generations (300–360 years)

Market Caps of Listed Companies by Price to Book, July 1926-December 2025 Since July 1926, the caps of the companies in the low price-to-book (value) portfolio have averaged $1.3 billion, those in the medium portfolio $3.0 billion and those in the high price-to-book (growth)

Over the last ~40 years we've seen a structural outperformance of S&P 600 (profitable small caps) vs Russell 2000 (junky small caps) There are three cyclical peaks: * 1999: Dot Com bubble * 2021: Meme Stock bubble * 2025: AI bubble Speculative junk outperforms late cycle then

To explain how securitisation works, we created a toy model of a a synthetic “Collateralised Whatever Obligation”. 🥳 ft.com/content/ade591…

In honor of 50 years of Apple, we're sharing - for the first time ever - Don Valentine's original 1977 memo for Sequoia's investment into Apple Computer. #Apple50

One of the best investments ever:

For decades everyone in the asset management industry learned that bonds are the best diversifier to stocks. Then inflation came and ruined the relationship but allocators have been slow to move to find better diversifiers in this environment even when they exist.