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Oh no! What will happen to all the jobs Lutnik promised for the high school graduates fixing the robots making the phones?

I may be missing something, but I think capital flight from the US is not a real issue because where will the capital go? Who is running enough deficits to absorb it? Very quickly, interest rates in Europe will go negative if there is a real trend. What am I missing?

Am I just paranoid, but doesn't this have the aroma of trying to influence markets? Maybe Lutnick is not part of the insider trading ring

Again, giving China another advantage while kneecapping an industry in which the US is a world leader. The stupidity is mind boggling.

The reason everyone is so confused right now, is that we have great models and historical evidence of what happens when a small economy relative to the global economy follows the current US path. But what happens if it is the major player? 😬

Capital can only flee if it has where to flee to.

Having used the tools to code, I don't agree with Benn. In 1 or 2 maybe 3 years we will see the most talented programmers "managing" teams of thousands of AI agents who are equivalent each to a top 10% human programmer. That will require a lot of computing power.

Fairly unusual VIX future term structure right now (much lower line), with pretty much linear backwardation. The top lines are Apr/May 2020, after the Covid crash low point in Mar 2020.

This is a good way to explain how magnificently the administration is harming the US by cutting NIH funding. Having direct knowledge of what NIH funding does, I've been tearing my hair out the last few weeks. Please make it stop.

Fair to say that the current VIX Future term structure is flat, less than 0.5 points difference across the entire span.

If you are into $VIX art, I call these charts "There and Back Again". The two lowest lines are the $VIX term structure on April 2 and today. We are back where we started and in contango. Historically, it took much more time for this to happen.

$VIX future term structure today 16-May-2025, with S&P at ~5900 and the first time it hit 5900, 6-Nov-2024. Some path dependence...

If you believe in the computational theory of mind (which is the only game in town in my opinion) and LLMs are the best computational method to mimic human thinking, then your starting point should be that humans think like LLMs. Of course, as new data emerges, I am prepared to

The massive overinvestment in fiber optic infrastructure in the late 90's is very different from the investment in AI datacenters today. Just for software development, companies will use every processor offered. Just think about the all legacy code that needs to be modernized.

A simple risk on/off indicator is the ratio of the Cboe's $VIX & $VIX3M indicators for 30 and 93 day horizons. When it goes above 0.95 it's definitely time to think about taking some risk off--if you are a mature enough investor. Historically, it has signaled at least a day

TFW the boss steals all your credit

Because of the ability to do location arbitrage in the US, any "raise taxes only on the rich" state or city level scheme is just a long term downward spiral.

To all those depressed about Mamdani, don't be. As someone who grew up in a very socialist country and whose grandparents were communists, just let it all play out. I know what happens when smart people with the best intentions try these policies beyond a small group. Just let