13/31 There are indications that Siberia might be repeatedly considered as a test location but ruled out after considering the frigid weather. The device is certain to be Uranium-based and sourced from old stockpiles. It might need light refurbishments before use in testing.

14/31 The possibility for the ☢️ test during this period (from now to Apr 30) appears to be the greatest between March 5-15 and April 15-30 at around 8:30-9:00 AM local time. Essentially, this test will be timed to occur at late night or in the wee morning hours for adversaries.

15/31 Patience and extreme care will be required to coverup tracks and hide from the eyes in the sky. It is likely to be more than one device (mostly two) in the low 20 kt range that is fired in fairly quick succession. The goal will be deterrence without escalation.

16/31 Some local radioactive leak is possible due to the urgent execution of the operation but it can be contained without significant damage. Some minor bronchial health effects for area personnel are possible.

17/31 There is an indication that the placement of the test devices might be moved from one tunnel to another as their suitability is evaluated. The tunnels in the West and North will likely see activity.

18/31 Cluster attacks using drones and ammunitions are possible responses by adversaries. This strategy might be used to evade air defenses at the test site and cause just enough damage to sabotage operations.

19/31 The tests will nevertheless be successful for #Russia and bring fame/gains/recognition and local public approval post April. As one might suspect, there will be relatively extreme international opposition to the tests particularly from neighbors.

20/31 However, there is a group of countries (between 5 and 10) that will remain friendly and posture neutrality. It appears likely that India will be one of them.

21/31 SARMAT II is also likely to be activated (possibly secretly) for combat duty during this period. A strategic launch of the nuclear-capable ICBM is also possible to demonstrate combat readiness and to establish deterrence.

22/31 Other major scientific discoveries and secret inventions using Nobelium are likely (and possibly disclosed to the public) as Russia seeks to re-establish its scientific leadership and strengthen its strategic deterrence posture.

23/31 Cyber-espionage and hacking attacks on adversaries via the Nobelium group is also possible.