2/31 This is a follow-up thread to my earlier post about #Russia and #Ukraine last year. #OSINT #Ukraine RussianWar #Putin #Zelensky

3/31 While #Russia continues to maintain the upper hand, this is now a temporary two-month period of caution for Russia and danger for the honorable President #Putin President of Russia.

4/31 Coups and backstabbing from trusted aides are possible. Secret enemies are likely to strike when least expected. There are likely to be differences of opinion amongst the honorable Members of the Cabinet and the State #Duma .

5/31 It appears that a dangerous conspiracy might be hatched (although unsuccessfully) to attempt removing the honorable President #Putin President of Russia from office.

6/31 The pretend gloves will be off and there will be open warfare from Russia’s adversaries. However, the honorable Russian State Duma will unite despite their differences and support the honorable President #Putin President of Russia for #Russia .

7/31 Unrest in the nation is likely to see an uptick as the sanctions temporarily impact and negatively influence the economy. Debt payments and freezing of new assets are likely to add pressure to the economy. Liquidity will also come under stress.

8/31 An indirect attack on the economy is possible via damages to buildings, crops and mineral/oil wealth. It appears that the oil price cap strategy might however be delayed in delivering results. The Russian economy will nevertheless undergo some temporal volatility.

9/31 The critics for the honorable President #Putin President of Russia will raise their voice boldly. Every department’s functioning is likely to be criticized leading the way for stringent reforms. The growth rate and economy might falter under the weight of this opposition.

10/31 There will be heavy capital expenditures in war, arms and ammunition. Strategic failures in war are possible. This is not a good time for risky new offensives using ground troops.

11/31 Traps await #Russia if they press forward with new major offensives during this period. This will result in significant losses to military assets, troop strength and overall morale.

12/31 There is significant potential for a surprise underground ☢️ test before April 30 by the 12th Chief Directorate at the Novaya Zemlya site as a response to the relentless crossing of red lines and escalations in the conflict. Heated rhetoric is likely with adversaries.