GEFS past 3 runs. Need to watch trends over the next 3 days with 97L speed, ridging, and intensity. No need to worry but if you are along the East Coast of the U.S and especially the SE U.S make sure you monitor the situation at least once every day and have a hurricane plan.

Certainly puts in to perspective not writing this storm off.

Latest EPS compared to Sunday Afternoon, you can easily see the uncertainty in track on #97L actually grow and maybe two camps forming like the EC-AI has had. An OTS cluster and a further west cluster. Compared to previous OTS storms like Larry, Sam, Teddy etc-this isn’t a lock.

Latest CMC run on Erin.

We've seen this before. What looks like a comfortable recurve just keeps ticking further south and west and all of the sudden lots of land masses could be in play. Still 7-10 days out so *everything* is still on the table. Keep watching this one.

Erin has lost all deep convection and has slowed down in latest frames along with starting a SW jog. Hard to say what downstream implications this may have but this may make Erin harder to resolve and put it closer to the Leewards and delayed strengthening as the AI models had…

A change that is causing us to see further west tracks on the ICON and ECMWF/EPS may mean a weak or strong storm won’t influence an OTS track, it’s actually the trough over Eastern Canada slightly speeding up and allowing the ridge to build in, pushing Erin west.

Latest ICON ensembles support the western Operation run with a huge trend west today. Not good as it stands TODAY*.

At this point I think the U.S can breathe a sigh of relief with Erin. It’s gonna be hard in 2025 to get major 5-6 day forecast failures. Beryl last year had decent tweaks at 144 hours out but still complex steering. Even more recent Henri 2021, but just don’t see it happening.

A bit tired of talking about Erin but man has the East Coast been so lucky for over a decade now! Avoiding powerful storms with most going out to sea or into the gulf. Have to wonder if all the luck is gonna run out one day but for now, the East Coast is just fine.

Man this is what everyone said with the SW Atlantic forecasted to be dangerous this year. Hopefully people are grateful for the luck of Erin going ots but man we need to watch anything in this part of the basin this year.

Not sure it’ll matter much but Erin is proceeding a west motion and is about to pass 64W without passing 20N.

Doubtful this trend continues as it would eventually be a devastating model failure but the OBX should have their hurricane plans in place.

I’m sure we’ll be fine but didn’t expect to still the outline of hispaniola on meso-satellite images to start this week. Erin definitely moving slower than expected currently.

To be where Erin is now it basically went out of the 3 day cone it had for this timeframe. I’m not saying it will do that but even following the western edge of this cone could be awfully problematic as Erin continues to tick west.

Man Erin is the definition of a close blow. Never been one to believe in luck but it seems as though the Carolinas used all of their luck with Erin. Fully expecting nasty beach erosion and a scary looking satellite picture before the inevitable eastward jog.

Tick and tick and tick. Man I am concerned for the OBX.

Erin's track continues to nudge west, slightly closer to North Carolina, due to slower northward movement and subtle shifts in atmospheric steering flow. It will be a very near miss. Tracks late Sunday ➡️ tracks late Monday