The Swap & the Collapse: Prediction market and Poll Movements, mid-July vs. now. Trump's polling margins by time: Emerson: Trump +4 (on 7/15) --> Trump -4 (on 8/15) Yougov: Trump+2 (7/16) --> Trump -2 (8/13) Morning Consult: Trump +1 (7/15) --> Trump -3 (8/11) Fox

She should give him a cabinet position to stay in the race as a spoiler. Nearly every poll post-swap has him taking at least a point from Trump.

Japan has been collecting data on the date of peak cherry tree blossom since 812 See if you can spot climate change...

As mentioned, Kamala should dangle a cabinet position to keep RFK in the race as a spoiler.

Advice to new faculty - do not put "Semester - Year" anywhere in your slides.

Nate's model is great, but (1) Trafalgar is not, (2) there is little polling over labor day weekend, and (3) his convention-bounce adjustment was probably overly-aggressive this year.

Some good stuff here but mostly nonsense. It doesn't make sense to make these all binary. E.g., the economy is good, but cumulative inflation makes it roughly a wash. R midterm gains were dismal. Afghanistan was a failure, but it's been 3 years so minor.

Can confirm. I used to buy them out of a vending machine in Europe at a fraction of the price as in the US. $100 trip for a subscription avoided.

Would have been funnier had trump said "eating the alley cats". youtube.com/shorts/UOQ5b1U…