Just setting up my Twitter. #myfirstTweet

Alarm bells have been sounding about the huge build-up of leverage in emerging market countries over recent years, with economists pointing to EM leverage as the source of the next great crisis. But the picture is distorted. Strip out China, and EMs look less risky.

Between 2008 and 2018, world automobile production leapt from 53mn vehicles a year to 71mn. That increase was driven almost entirely by the growth of production in China to meet local Chinese demand. Outside China, production has flat-lined. #autos #carmarket #carsales #autosales

India is a "young country” but it also has a huge population -> 2nd largest elderly population in the world: >120m over the age of 60 -> serious risk that corona will overwhelm its stretched and under-resourced health care system. Gavekal via (((The Daily Shot)))

Talk about inflation is ubiquitous. But inflationary pressures are actually quite lopsided, as illustrated by the fact that for the very first time on record, US inflation is now outpacing inflation across most of the developing world.

A lack of policy credibility and frequent boom-bust cycles has meant that most investors now steer clear of Turkish assets in their portfolios, with the result that Turkey punches well below its weight in global benchmarks.

Coming out of the pandemic, prices of various commodities had mostly been moving in lockstep with each other. But in recent weeks, there has been a marked divergence.

Indonesia has long been a major producer of nickel—widely viewed as a key resource in the green energy transition. Today, Indonesia accounts for 50% of global nickel production, piggybacking on a wave of Chinese investment in smelting and processing facilities.

In a world loaded with debt, the rise in private-sector leverage in Asia has attracted relatively little attention, even though it now exceeds levels seen in the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.

Since late 2022, the Reserve Bank of India has tried to suppress currency volatility by controlling the rupee’s exchange rate with the US dollar. This brought stability via a rapid buildup of forex reserves, but also left the rupee overvalued against other trading partners. 🧵📈

Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs are intended to level the playing field for US businesses against foreign competitors. Although the final tariffs will factor in other non-tariff barriers such as subsidies and regulatory costs, a quick comparison of average

India’s exports of services have begun to outstrip its exports of goods in recent months, a remarkable development for an economy at India’s stage of development. Most lower middle income economies move up the development ladder by industrializing first and then moving up the

As the largest country by weight in MSCI’s benchmark for emerging market equities, the movements in Chinese stocks have had a disproportionately high impact on the rest of the EM universe. However, that close relationship seems to have changed in recent years. Investors have

Emerging market asset prices had a stellar year in 2025. The MSCI EM equity index rose 32% in US dollar terms. This was the first year since 2017 that the EM benchmark outperformed US equities.

Real yields on Japanese inflation-indexed bonds have been rising quickly and now threaten to break out into positive territory. They could yet have much further to rise given that real yields in other developed markets are significantly higher. This creates an upward pull on