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Housing and financial service/insurance remain the bane of the inflation problem. We think housing should show some material disinflation soon. Not sure about financial services if the stock market keeps hitting new record.

If our forecast for a 3.8% unemployment rate in May turns out to be correct on Friday, it would not be an overstatement to claim that the current labor market is the best one since the 1950s.

Ok the Celtics and job gains both beat forecasts, so what not to like? Maybe rate cut hope is dwindled a little bit, but the cool summer is still ahead of us when it comes to inflation. That big increase in rent won't likely be the case this year.

Powell mentioned wage seems a bit too high to be sustainable for inflation. It less clear looking at this graph. Supercore inflation jumps all over the place while wage growth is on a steady down trend. It has been things like car insurance & airfares driving supercore not wages

What a quiet night in Dallas!

Tatum + Brown >>> the “best backcourt duo in NBA history”.

Economic growth appeared much softer in the first 5 months. Slower-than-anticipated growth should push the Fed closer to cutting interest rates. We expect further cooling in the 2nd half, increasing the probability of a policy error if the Fed remains behind the curve once more.

Strong income growth was the tailwind for spending in May as the labor market continued to save the day. But it is at or near a tipping point that calls for immediate rate cuts this year.

The economy is near its breaking point. Our call for a June or July rate cut at the beginning of the year looks even better now. But the Fed is stuck with its communication, won't move until September.

Wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic level, adding to the host of evidence that the labor market is near its breaking point. The Fed should look to cut soon.

US June CPI: the big news inside the CPI was the lagged impact of easing owner occupied housing costs finally started to show up. Housing costs eased to 0.2% and is up 4.4% from one year ago. On a three-month average is increasing at 2.3% pace all of which will be welcome by

Hindsight 2022: "Fed waited too long to raise rate when inflation spiked." Hindsight 2024: "Fed waited too long to cut rate, we need 50 bps now after one terrible job report." We actually didn't have to rely on hindsight as we called it last December. rsm.buzz/4bZ72yk

Does anyone care about the super core inflation metric any more? The 3-month cratered in July to the lowest level since 2021. Labor market is slowing so we dont think we should be concerned about wage-price inflation pressure anymore.

This is when goats are made. Can Mahomes comback from a pick 6? If not he will never be Tom Brady.