Tommy Deepwater (@tommydeepwater) 's Twitter Profile
Tommy Deepwater

@tommydeepwater

Former Oilfield Services LevFin/HY analyst. Lived the 2015-2016 downturn. Sharing industry research and not investment advice.

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calendar_today18-03-2009 22:55:56

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$BP on Paleogene (Kaskida). Yes, we hear you loud and clear Appraisal wells and development wells. Tiber also could be same design. Rig costs are high bc the 20k technology is very high spec limited supply. E&P returns still very good. Yet to secure a rig HT Puddleglum

$BP on Paleogene (Kaskida). Yes, we hear you loud and clear

Appraisal wells and development wells. Tiber also could be same design. Rig costs are high bc the 20k technology is very high spec limited supply. E&P returns still very good. Yet to secure a rig

HT <a href="/sictransitglora/">Puddleglum</a>
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Modestly light rate at $485k on Invictus but addresses idle time in 2025, which had been a complaint Invictus was penciled in for Woodside’s Trion to begin ~Feb ‘26, though now another drillship will work that job $RIG exercising option value to reduce Invictus white space risk

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$RIG $VAL $NE 2Q24 EBITDA beats for all the offshore contract drillers. Given the long-cycle nature of industry, call commentary is most interesting to me although 2Q24 results show positively for industry. *EBITDA is obviously non-GAAP. DYODD.

$RIG $VAL $NE 2Q24 EBITDA beats for all the offshore contract drillers. Given the long-cycle nature of industry, call commentary is most interesting to me although 2Q24 results show positively for industry.

*EBITDA is obviously non-GAAP. DYODD.
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$RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Quick Call Thoughts In Deepwater, NE and VAL are 7G w/ Golden Triangle focus. Expect 2H25/2026 commencements – market hoping for 1H25 though strong confidence on work. RIG $ODL.OL Semis in Norway tighter market. RIG has very good 20k prospects in US GoM.

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$RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $SDRL $ODL.OL "Macro Trumps Micro" Offshore contract drillers all had 2Q24 EBITDA beats. While next 12 month 7G drillship project commencements are flattish, dayrates are $485k-$515k with consensus on strength in 2H25 and beyond backed by visible demand. Not

$RIG $VAL $NE $TDW $SDRL $ODL.OL "Macro Trumps Micro"

Offshore contract drillers all had 2Q24 EBITDA beats. While next 12 month 7G drillship project commencements are flattish, dayrates are $485k-$515k with consensus on strength in 2H25 and beyond backed by visible demand. Not
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$FANG today is the $EOG of the 2010’s. Impressive work. I don’t love all of US shale E&P but Diamondback earning deserved high praise

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$NE $HYG I picked up debt coverage of this industry after it crashed 9+ years ago. Upsized bond offerings a positive signal after some very dark days in 2015-2017 These are credits with strong long term tailwinds. NE’s mostly stock transaction for DO also clear credit positive

$NE $HYG I picked up debt coverage of this industry after it crashed 9+ years ago. Upsized bond offerings a positive signal after some very dark days in 2015-2017

These are credits with strong long term tailwinds. NE’s mostly stock transaction for DO also clear credit positive
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2Q24 Offshore Call Summary: E&P, FPSO and OFS Shale E&P’s such as $FANG demonstrated onshore services cost efficiencies in 1H24, although $CVX states offshore service markets are stronger. Chevron CEO, “You can see different dynamics in the onshore and the offshore...We are

2Q24 Offshore Call Summary: E&amp;P, FPSO and OFS

Shale E&amp;P’s such as $FANG demonstrated onshore services cost efficiencies in 1H24, although $CVX states offshore service markets are stronger. 

Chevron CEO, “You can see different dynamics in the onshore and the offshore...We are
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Paleogene 20K Oil: High Tech, Low Supply #oott $CVX announced first oil at its Anchor deepwater project in US GoM utilizing high pressure 20k psi completion technology, two weeks after $BP sanctioned a similar project, Kaskida. While exciting, 20k completion technology is

Paleogene 20K Oil: High Tech, Low Supply #oott

$CVX announced first oil at its Anchor deepwater project in US GoM utilizing high pressure 20k psi completion technology, two weeks after $BP sanctioned a similar project, Kaskida. While exciting, 20k completion technology is
Tommy Deepwater (@tommydeepwater) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Five Things: (1) $ODL.OL 2Q24, (2) Orange Basin, (3) $PBR Equatorial Margin, (4) Location and (5) Northern Ocean $NOL.OL (1) Odfjell: 2Q24 EBITDA of $84.7mm beat $78.3mm estimate. Reiterated ~$50mm SPS cost on remaining SPS. Deepsea Atlantic SPS and upgrade complete. The Odfjell

Five Things: (1) $ODL.OL 2Q24, (2) Orange Basin, (3) $PBR Equatorial Margin, (4) Location and (5) Northern Ocean $NOL.OL

(1) Odfjell: 2Q24 EBITDA of $84.7mm beat $78.3mm estimate. Reiterated ~$50mm SPS cost on remaining SPS. Deepsea Atlantic SPS and upgrade complete. The Odfjell
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$PBR $OIH $XLE Petrobras: Capex, Dividends and M&A Petrobras guided its capex for 2024 lower from the $18.5B budget to $13.5-$14.5B. Petrobras cited (i) a “mismatch between financial payments and physical milestones,” (ii) postponement of contracts on new projects, (iii)

$PBR $OIH $XLE Petrobras: Capex, Dividends and M&amp;A

Petrobras guided its capex for 2024 lower from the $18.5B budget to $13.5-$14.5B. Petrobras cited (i) a “mismatch between financial payments and physical milestones,” (ii) postponement of contracts on new projects, (iii)
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Let's Go to Paramaribo 🇸🇷 Paramaribo is the mostly Dutch speaking capital of Suriname, where TotalEnergies/APA are likely to sanction the ~$9B Block 58 project in 4Q24 with first oil expected in 2028 and drilling commencing in 1H26. A source of incremental rig and OSV demand.

Let's Go to Paramaribo 🇸🇷

Paramaribo is the mostly Dutch speaking capital of Suriname, where TotalEnergies/APA are likely to sanction the ~$9B Block 58 project in 4Q24 with first oil expected in 2028 and drilling commencing in 1H26. A source of incremental rig and OSV demand.
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$RIG $HYG Bondholder friendly sale of low to mid tier (at best) assets. Project delays cloud DD3/Inspiration demand into '26 as higher spec rigs available and likely to find work 1st. Keeping DD3/Inspiration warm has costs. Sale may save >$45mm/yr OpCF on warm stack and interest.

$RIG $HYG Bondholder friendly sale of low to mid tier (at best) assets. Project delays cloud DD3/Inspiration demand into '26 as higher spec rigs available and likely to find work 1st. Keeping DD3/Inspiration warm has costs. Sale may save &gt;$45mm/yr OpCF on warm stack and interest.
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$RIG $HYG $JNK Is Transocean 'BB' or 'BK' at Year-End 2026? DYODD RIG stated its interest of obtaining a “BB” credit rating in 2026 on its 2Q24 call. Their most recent investor presentation notes strengthening the balance sheet as “first priority” via deleveraging mostly from

$RIG $HYG $JNK Is Transocean 'BB' or 'BK' at Year-End 2026? DYODD

RIG stated its interest of obtaining a “BB” credit rating in 2026 on its 2Q24 call. Their most recent investor presentation notes strengthening the balance sheet as “first priority” via deleveraging mostly from