Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations dlvr.it/T1wcTT

📢 Big news: Our paper, "Pockets of Predictability: A Replication, " accepted for publication in The Journal of Finance!📢 Is it possible to predict aggregate stock market returns? Farmer et al. (2023) propose a nuanced answer to this long-debated question: sometimes. 🧵1/4

Yet another case of Arnold Kling's model open.substack.com/pub/arnoldklin…

What do you think?

God gave unto man, destiny; man, laughing in the face of God, created the science of probabilities, decomposing God's singular destiny into a simple set of mean-variance optimization problems. Portfolio theory? No, Markowitz created a tool for man to conquer fate

Speed has been temporally banned on YouTube for jumping over a car while live….

When you ain’t do nun on the group project and still get an A🏅

They say academics don't have any impact when it only took one of us to get breakdancing out of the 2028 Olympics

It took a while, but the majority of Democrats now support nuclear power ☢️

A few years ago, when deciding if I wanted to pay a concierge doctor's insane rates, I internet stalked him and and found he'd previously built a Bayesian calculator app for doctors. I SMASHED the hire button.

Most awkward “we denied the Nobel Prize winner tenure” write-up since Penn’s last year

Mankiw’s introductory textbook on macroeconomics lists the top ten statements economists agree on. The top two are statements against rent control and tariffs. We’ve got one party running on each of these in the current election. Sad state of affairs.

For the record, this is a list of *heterodox economists* (no MIT economists!) While it is true that inflation (& growth) are poorly measured there, and while it is still not clear how Milei is going to land the plane, Argentina needed to put an end to decades of leftist poverty.

Incentives.

So I don't object to engineered environments for kids; I do think the standard Asian choices for environment engineering are not good Classical piano/violin are basically devoid of creativity, strategic thinking, teamwork. They basically train rote memorization and hard work

One state ***increased*** its reading literacy for the bottom 10% of students while 49 other states let standards keep slipping. It was the poorest state in the country, Mississippi. In 2013 they enacted a rule where at 4th grade if you can’t read, you repeat until you can.

I like Kamenica and Gentzkow as much as the next guy, but you’re allowed to use Jensen’s inequality without citing a 2011 paper.

A year or two back I was talking with an AI-skeptic mathematician. I told him LLMs could solve open questions in my research area. He said: "but your research doesn't count as thinking"

Elon should call the combined company " X".