new sub post up: The Shadow Cash Market, Part II conks.plumbing/p/the-shadow-c…

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The Observatory 🔥🤖🚀 Using the systematic lenses developed for our Prometheus Homebuilders Program, we evaluate whether the recent bounce in homebuilder stocks is sustainable. prometheus-macro.com

Today's inflation readings were in line with the consensus, but our inflation gauges continue to signal disinflation. Our inflation gauges aggregate measures of production, employment, and monetary tightness to measure the macro pressures on inflation.

The difference between permits + starts and to completions offers an insight into the potential housing completions ahead. The more permits and starts relative to completions, the more housing activity to come. Headwinds:

Prometheus ETF Portoflio 🤖🔥🚀 Our ETF Program rotates between stocks, bonds, commodities and cash to generate absolute returns. The program was 94% long stocks this week. New positions, out on Friday: prometheus-macro.com

From the one-year anniversary of the below tweet, S&P 500 had outperformed R2K by >15% (QQQ >20%). Many funds had piled into the short R2K trade - and for that reason you have to manage the hedge a bit... With that said, long large/qual + short small remains the trade...

How Would You Allocate Assets in Today's Macro Backdrop? Scanning through asset prices and macro fundamentals to figure out the best reward/risk for asset allocation. 1/16 Lots of Prometheus Research data...

2/Let's start with asset price trends, which give a nice context. Starting with stocks, which continue to rip. After Liberation Day, it's basically been one-way traffic, which is consistent with an expanding business cycle.

13/ Okay, putting all this together, how would I allocate an active portfolio? I know I'd want to own stocks; history seems to suggest they are okay-ish with these types of conditions. I would own 20% of my max position in an active, absolute return format.

16/ Thanks for getting to the end. The best way to leverage this account is to let me know the topics you want to hear about. Macro, process, strategies- anything goes. If I feel I have insight, I'll share my thinking in another thread like this. Let me know 🔽