NYFed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index revealed pressures decreased considerably in Feb & now < historical avg. Also note the RBA claims 50+% of the CPI increase was attributable to supply side issues... #portfolio #macroeconomics #investing newyorkfed.org/research/polic…

Very important US Payrolls report due out tonight! A higher than exp number (E: 225k, range: 183k-271k) spells bad news for asset prices.. All ahead of US CPI (Tue night) which together will seal the fate of the FOMC meeting on 21st & 22nd of March.. AUD sold off from 71c to 65c!

US CPI tonight! Could be interesting, we cycle some large prints from Feb (+0.7%) & Mar (+1.0%) 2022. Recent bailouts have seen huge moves across US Treasuries: 1yr 5.25% to 4.3%, 2yr 5.05% to 4.03%! A softer CPI print = more pivot speculation ahead of next week's FOMC meeting..

University of Toronto - Cellphone activity in downtown San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels! New York is at 74% Chicago is at 50% Boston is at 54%.. This has implications for retail, restaurants and office REITs.. #markets #investing #portfol…lnkd.in/gcahVzw8

The forced sale of First Republic Bank to JP Morgan seeks to contain US regional banking pressures for now and just ahead of tonight's 2 day Fed meeting where another rate rise is on the table. Another great deal for JP Morgan as i…lnkd.in/gFpZuUZh lnkd.in/gyXWf27R

US Mar-23 job openings fell 3.9%MoM and 20.3%YoY, but remain 37.7% above pre-Covid levels. Quits fell 3.2%MoM and 13.5%YoY to 9.2% above pre-Covid levels. The openings-to-unemployed ratio eased to 1.64x from recent highs of 2x, but remains far above the l…lnkd.in/gMDavSfr

Short report on Icahn Enterprises from Hindenberg Research released last night. More references to valuations on private/unlisted assets (including some real estate) and 60% of Carl Icahn's 85% shareholding is used to secure margin…lnkd.in/gwQk2YTB lnkd.in/gPUDecyc

The below chart of Chinese cathode production part explains why investing in Nickel has been 2nd rate exposure to Lithium when seeking leverage to global EV proliferation.. I also expect a new cathode chemistry to make this chart by year end... #markets…lnkd.in/egfa8RrN

The US Fed at its May-23 meeting lifted rates, as expected, by 25bps to 5.0-5.25%. It tweaked its reference to “additional tightening may be appropriate” to make that data dependent. In his press conference Chair Powell emphasised…lnkd.in/ephaUuQw lnkd.in/eAXjAVvE

The Bank of England raised rates by 0.25% to 4.5% last night after last week's 0.25% rise by the ECB. While early entrants to the crisis may be due to recent interest rate hedging, UK banks may be in a better position than Euro ban…lnkd.in/gbk5ZsUS lnkd.in/gaG4sTbF

Please contact me if you wish to register for our upcoming Lithium afternoon #markets #investing #portfolio #stocks #finance #lithium #lithiummining lnkd.in/gG4SQS9Q

No surprises here - The US Senate has passed a bill to end another debt ceiling standoff... #markets #investing #portfolio #stocks #finance lnkd.in/gRndBkND

This paragraph sums up the RBA's view nicely: "Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7 per cent is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range. This further increase in interest rates is to provide greate…lnkd.in/gxCy7DFq

This mornings comments from our macro strategist, Mal Wood: "The Statement emphasised that recent data has increased upside inflation risks, with specific reference to public sector wages and the 5.75% minimum wage increase. The Board retained a bias to…lnkd.in/gysd3VNB

The US budget deficit for the year-to-May rose to USD$2.11tr. Revenue was down 11.3% year on year while Expenditure was up 9.4% year on year. An 8.2% GDP deficit in a high inflation environment! Not quite as inflationary as throwing USD$5tr of stimulus i…lnkd.in/evCsZpbr

It feels as though this commercial real estate/unlisted asset crack is widening domestically... - Last week's A-grade commercial office property sale by Dexus at a 17% discount to its Dec'22 book value, - Chinese Insurer Ping An lo…lnkd.in/ewQnuSui lnkd.in/eVyAQed8

US CPI out tonight! Should be an interesting print considering we start cycling some large prints from May'22 (+0.9%) & Jun'22 (+1.2%). Expectations are for a monthly headline CPI increase of 0.2%, which will bring the annual measure down from 4.9% to 4.…lnkd.in/guH6g5JB

While there will be a time for distressed credit strategies, the opportune entrance to those strategies appears to be still ahead of us. Is there enough global excess liquidity to keep the CLO market afloat? or how big do central bank balance sheets have…lnkd.in/gYX68s5w

Bidenomics picks up where the Powell Put left off... With an 8.2% GDP deficit in a high inflation environment is the US really going into recession.. perhaps not.. #markets #investing #portfolio #stocks #finance lnkd.in/gYca-Njc

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down 0.1% to 3.6%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday night. Most interesting was the last paragraph of their release…lnkd.in/gUC-eiga lnkd.in/gB-3K_rN