"so many different shaped spaces"

At some point productivity is going to start spiking like it always does as we shed jobs into a recession and there are going to be sooo many takes about how this is the "AI recession"

Seeing the argument a lot that bad jobs #s can be explained by low/no immigration. But then wouldn't we expect unemployment down/wage growth up? Otherwise, bad #s still indicate low demand for workers and thus still predictive of recession. Thoughts? Danny Dayan Greg Ip

The "market cap" of gold is now 22% of world GDP. It was 8% in 1975, 12% at the 2011 peak, and as far as I can tell has never been higher post-Bretton Woods outside of a brief spike in 1980 when it hit 25%. I've been bullish on gold but it's feeling stretched here

God forbid housing becomes slightly more affordable. She's talking about *downside* risks to inflation after 5 years where cumulative inflation has more than doubl the Fed's mandate, you can't make this stuff up

I was getting a little nervous about my short dollar positions (gold, foreign currencies, foreign stocks) but then I saw this post. This guy is a great contra, he's been predicting deflation for the last 6 years lol

It can't actually do this is the thing. If it could it would be a lot more interesting and disruptive. But it still isn't capable of real narrative of more than a few seconds or shots with very specific details. These failure modes make it very hard to use for real storytelling

"It makes no sense that AI has had zero impact on aggregate productivity" I think to myself as I spend 30 minutes coding up a toy script with Claude Code to do a task I simply would have avoided forever before (to no real consequence)

A crash of this magnitude would put stocks at multiples not seen since *checks notes* April

This is one of those facts that sounds fake if all you do is read fintwit, but inflation adjusted earnings for the S&P 500 are flat to down over the last 4 years. Even in nominal terms they're up an anemic ~10%. In that same time period the index is up ~50%. Lol

The concept of "talking your book" is completely lost on the tech press. There isn't going to be a singularity from LLMs lol

🤔

The art of the deal: Step 1: make a crazy threat you'll never follow through on Step 2: immediately signal to your counterparty that you're ready to cave Step 3: ??? Step 4: Chinese century

I should have bought more gold

So the OpenAI api is clearly throttled, almost to the point of uselessness. Even if you pay for priority it's about 4x slower than the ChatGPT app/website itself. I.e. they are heavily prioritizing consumer over business applications. That doesn't really scream "AGI"

The Fed has to be pretty happy that CPI is right at their target even with all these tariffs