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2. Self-bullshitting. The act of bullshitting yourself. Example: you want to do a bad thing, and you’re trying to convince yourself it’s okay. Your goal is not to figure out if the thing really is okay; it’s to come up with excuses for doing it. optimallyirrational.com/p/the-truth-ab…

Amazing post on the origins of depression by Lionel Page

Dolphin copies cartwheels 📹 Yogawithalysa

I like the increasing amount of in-depth data journalism, breaking the focus on individual events. This time by Tom Calver for The Times and The Sunday Times on falling British divorce rates. They peaked among couples married in 1995, but are now back at 1970s levels. thetimes.com/article/35d056…

Lots of volatility on prediction markets about the US elections. Right now the prices on Hypermind for Trump are lower than in 2016 and 2020 at the same stage. from Hypermind

Infants used to have a higher risk of death than 80-year-olds. In the 18th century, around 20% of girls in Sweden died during infancy — higher than the risk at age 80. The risk has since reduced across all ages, but most profoundly for infants, whose risks have fallen 100x.

The miscommunication risk that comes with strategic ambiguity. by zach

📢New paper in PNAS! How rich was Vienna at the time of Mozart or Tuscany at the time of Michelangelo? Historical GDPs per capita are scarce, leaving this unanswered. Here, we provide new estimates using machine learning to augment historical GDPs per capita. /1 🧵

Excellent post from Stuart Ritchie on the politicisation of science: "Imagine you heard a scientist saying the following: I’m being paid massive consultation fees by a pharmaceutical company who wants the results of my research to turn out in one specific way. And that’s a good

Another foundational effect of social psychology, with 800+ citations, doesn't appear to replicate. (Source on screenshot: theorgplumber.com/posts/statemen…)

i love when i can SEE maths

The US Presidential race is very close in the polls. Using past polling errors is a good way to convey the uncertainty of the current numbers. Trump would clearly win with the 2020 errors, and Harris would clearly win with the 2022 errors.

Proceeding through life as if we know what’s going on, while our brain is actually filling gaping holes in our understanding in the background.

This is probably an excellent thread :-) (It really is an excellent thread)

I wrote about America's epistemological crisis: conspicuouscognition.com/p/americas-epi…

We already have robots working in agriculture and they’re way more productive than this humanoid

As analysis of 299 preregistered replications finds that nonreplicable studies, are vaguely written and have markers of persuasion techniques, such as the use of positivity ("showed", "first", "important") and clout ("we", "our"). journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117…

A log Galton board can give an intuition about the drivers of the skewed shape of income distribution. Every success can offer people subsequent opportunities to gain much more while early failures shrink future opportunities Excellent animation by Bret Beheim

I will be in Paris in October to give a workshop on "Adaptive Explanations of Economic Behaviour" at the ENS Paris-Saclay! The program and information to register is here: