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New orders for durable goods are up 18.2% since Jan '21 but down 5.5% after adjusting for inflation - the orders aren't larger, but the items on those orders are much more expensive:

5 of the last 6 Fridays have seen the DJIA close up, and the one exception was Aug. 2, when we had the yen carry trade squeeze. A string like that is a sign of bullish complacency.

Everyone who took ECON 101 learned about the principle of the "marginal consumer", which is the theoretical buyer of an item who decides not to buy when the price rises. That behavior is portrayed as linear, i.e. the more that prices rise, the more consumers there are who drop

x.com/McClellanOsc/s…

Best wishes, David, on this next chapter. I look forward to seeing more great things.

The spread between the Fed Funds target rate and the 2-year yield is now at its widest point since 2008. That one did not turn out well. It was also this wide back in 2000-01.

Not a very good correlation between high readings and subsequent price action.

There is an argument that JNK and HYG are benefiting from the concentration taking place in the HY bond market. The number of HY bonds being traded is now a small fraction of IG bonds, which is partly a function of falling bond prices, hence the correlation in this chart. But it

Fact check: CPI-Food.

...as long as the lawyers and bankers still get paid.

Lewis Carroll foretold climate alarmism.

I bet you could get down with that.

The "Anti-Deficiency Act" would prohibit Elon Musk (and anyone else) from providing unpaid volunteer service to the federal government. Per gao.gov/legal/appropri… But Mr. Musk could resurrect the tradition from WWI and WWII of a desire to be of public service which led

FWIW - I can't shake the feeling that this chart also accurately measures the relative mood of both companies' customers, too. h/t 𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨

Guess: They will go 25. They should go 150, just to catch up (i.e. down) to where the 2-year yield already is.

What’s more, when wind starts to wane, the CO2 producing power sources have to “throttle up”. Then throttle down again later. Natural gas turbine generators do this more efficiently than coal fired plants, but there is still a large amount of wasted energy just in that throttling

My latest Chart In Focus article, "Wheat & Gold: The Long Cycle", is posted at mcoscillator.com/learning_cente….

The big difference with "real" commodities is that they are not as easy to synthesize as financial commodities. And I would propose that today, this is really the $53,377.50 -4.52% question.

As an interesting aside to this article about the Gold/Wheat Ratio, there is a separate phenomenon in which the movements of gold prices tend to get echoed about a year later in wheat (and corn) prices. So look for rising food prices over the coming 12 months (at least).