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We can categorize risk off events through stock/bond correlation. We are in category 3, the “taper”, where the risk off is driven by higher rates and stocks and bonds are correlated. The taper ultimately becomes a “classic” as equities fall and bond market rallies.

Coming soon: the launch of f-stop, Apertura’s new corporate blog. In photography, the 'f-stop' denotes the opening size of the camera aperture, where a larger opening lets in more light & widens the depth of field. Find our 1st article - f/1 - by CEO Joseph La Barge here tomorrow.

The case for near-zero market returns in the next 12 months, by Liam La Barge open.substack.com/pub/liamlabarg…

So when SBF told Joe Weisenthal Tracy Alloway and Matt Levine that he was effectively running a Ponzi scheme we should have taken him literally and seriously.

I'm fully invested in the energy transition. But some people need a reality check - much more nuance and complexity in the energy space as fossil fuels will continue to be critical to our economy for the foreseeable future.

RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research Would be interesting if this time period mirrors that of 1920-21. Labor markets were similarly tight, inflation was high, the Fed hiked and the economy slowed, then growth re-accelerated, and finally a deeper recession occurred later. federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/f…

In practice, we're seeing that inflation can decelerate without the unemployment rate rising. However, there's still ambiguity about whether that can happen in theory.

Join us for a conversation with Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker tonight at 6 PM

Yes, it was definitely the villainous hedge funds who overstimulated the economy then were late to raise rates then raised them very quickly and then failed to regulate an obviously incompetent bank (and then bailed out its VC depositors). Go GG. on.ft.com/43uJFbL

Join us on September 25 at 6pm for a conversation with Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari. Find out more and register at the link! wifpr.wharton.upenn.edu/events-hq/a1WH…

Tonight at 6pm ET, join a livestream conversation with Neel Kashkari WG'02, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, moderated by Liam La Barge W '25: bit.ly/3ZCGXPJ

Following some issues with this evening's livestream, please see a recording of the Q&A with Neel Kashkari at the Penn The Wharton School School: minneapolisfed.org/speeches/2023/…

In honor of Byron Wien, essential lessons from his long life. RIP.

Best performing S&P 1500 stock today? Powell $POWL