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Markets are pricing only a 25% chance for a rate cut by the #SNB next week. I argue below that it is much higher as #Swiss data show that risks to the inflation target are now balanced such that a strong real #CHF and a restrictive monetary policy are not needed simultaneously.

Great decision by the #SNB to cut rates today and not to wait until the Fed or the ECB do so. The SNB rightly focuses on the #Swiss data that show low inflation rates that like remain in their target range in the coming years. snb.ch/public/publica…

Populisten an der Macht: Daten aus über 120 Jahren und 60 Ländern zeigen: 👉Wir leben in einem Zeitalter des Populismus 👉Populisten sind politische Überlebenskünstler 👉Populisten richten erheblichen wirtschaftlichen Schaden an Manuel Funke, Christoph Trebesch und Moritz Schularick heute

Did I eat too much sushi? In respectable distance to another great Money Market Apero, the #SNB increased its #minimum reserve ratio from 2.5 to 4% and ended some exemptions. As those reserves are not renumerated, banks interest earnings will fall by at least 190 mio CHF.

Wäre es eigentlich wirklich so schlimm, in den Vorstand der #Bundesbank auch mal Ökonomen zu berufen, die sich richtig gut mit #Geldpolitik auskennen? faz.net/1.9674423?prem…

#IMF Mission Concluding Statement on #Germany argues to moderately ease the #debt brake and to opt for a more gradual 7-year adjustment period within the new EU #fiscal rules to allow more room for much needed public investment. I couldn’t agree more. imf.org/en/News/Articl…

#Deutschland Berichterstattung in der Schweiz. Der Imageschaden durch die Deutsche #Bahn wird immer größer

Import speech by T. #Jordan of the #SNB on r* that he estimates to be around 0% for #Switzerland. Uncertainty around this means that the SNB had to assess the consequences underestimating r* when cutting in March. They were small thx to ample FX reserves. snb.ch/public/publica…

Warum fällt eigentlich jedes zweite Wirtschaftsbuch in der Frankfurter Bahnhofsbuchhandlung in die Rubrik Kapitalismuskritik?

#Swiss #inflation in May remains low enough for the #SNB to cut in June again. Most importantly the CPI ex rent falls to 0,9% yoy. #Rents increase by 1,0%mom only which is less than in November. Imported goods fall to -0,6% yoy despite weaker CHF

#SNB cuts policy rate by 0.25% to 1.25% as we expected as underlying inflation has decreased again. It also lowered its medium term #inflation forecast for 2026 to 1.0% from 1.1% previously. That means that risks to the inflation forecast are equally on both sides

Congrats to all three in their new positions at the #SNB

Good reason for another #rate cut in today’s #SNB business cycle signals. For 2025, they only expect #wage growth of around 1.5% after slightly below 2% in last quarter’s estimate. Given growth of labor #productivity of around 1%, inflation would below 1%. Better cut soon again!

Könnte irgend jemand bitte mal den #Schweinsteiger auswechseln oder auf sein Mikro auf Stumm stellen. Habe leider immer noch keinen halbwegs interessanten Kommentar von ihm gehört.

#Swiss #inflation continues is declining path as best highlighted by the CPI ex rent. This not makes a #SNB rate cut in September very likely but suggests more cuts to come afterwards

#Euro #coin with an X pressed into it below the eagle. Has anyone seen such a coin already or has an idea who is pressing x‘s into it or why?

Sometimes it is not all that bad to have a large balance sheet. #SNB makes a profit of 56.8 bln CHF in the first half of 2024.

#Swiss headline and core inflation remained unchanged at 1.3% & 1.1% in July as expected. More importantly CPI ex rent - currently a better measure of the medium term trend fell to 0.8% yoy. This reinforces our view that the SNB will cut in September & twice afterwards to 0.5%.

#Sentix economic expecations have turned and are pointing down in all major regions now. Be prepared for significant revisions of the economic scenario of the Fed, ECB, SNB in September.

#Swiss inflation fell to 1.1% in August. While this seems to be comfortably in the middle of the #SNB target range, details are worrying: CPI ex rent fell to only 0.4%. It might fall further if the upward pressure on the CHF continues. Expect further SNB rate cuts after September