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First of their kind? You'll be shocked at what was announced on August 15, 1971 (by a Republican, too). Price controls are an utter failure. Been there, done that.

Thanks to Mark Moss and Parker Lewis for hosting the discussion on price = elasticity. Hugely important concept and as both of them realize this isn't some academic discussion. That said, history is absolutely conclusive on this point. People who say Bitcoin somehow

It's past the middle of August so that means it's September. And that means interest rates are going to be going...up. youtu.be/ZyYesGpXuZM

The "September effect" in bonds is whatever it is and by now it might only be a system ghost - sort of like how traffic will be backed up for miles on a highway long after the wreck is cleared. Sell bonds in August and come back in October.

For the last year, the bond market has followed the usual pattern exceptionally closely. That means rates should go up modestly and not for any of the reasons you'll hear - all the same from last year that didn't matter. Fundamentals are what do matter and they haven't changed.

As far as bond/economy fundamentals, those remain awful even if retail sales were good in July (they were good in February, too). Consumer prices, for example, aren't just disinflationary, they've become too disinflationary.

The entire rest of the CPI bucket apart from shelter is negative over the last three months for the first time since 2020. Had only happened four times in the 2010s. In the context of 2024, that's a recession warning.

Everybody went nuts over July retail sales just like they did for February and March following January's plunge. Not only have those been revised significantly lower since being released they actually didn't mean consumer spending was just fine. youtu.be/FDmk5VXafNY

Financial media has a ridiculously short attention span especially when something doesn't fit Jay Powell's narrative. Grudgingly admit the truth then when a good month comes up (they always will) jump on it as if the bad ones never happened. youtu.be/FDmk5VXafNY

Worst of the revision "disease" spreading through mainstream macro data (payrolls, retail sales) is the Fed's IP. July crash was written off as hurricane while everyone just ignored June being revised way down after it had been held up as proof of strong and resilient.

Leading indications from manufacturing are all now decidedly negative and it isn't because of the weather. From PMIs to hard data, production (plus revisions!) is rolling over and that's a better view on the economy than a single month of volatile and overstated retail sales.

We already knew the BLS has been overstating job growth, but now they finally put a number on it - and it was as a big one. -818,000 And that's not even the most important part of the revisions. youtu.be/FoCY9RGVJfM QCEW cuts 12-month job growth Mar '23 to Mar '24 from

Japan's trade stats the perfect example of the price illusion "recovery" from 2020. It costs a ton more to get a lot less. That's why there is a global recession; not only do people have to pay those prices, it also means there is so much less stuff being made, moved, and bought.

Japanese exports to US are falling off. Slowing down by yen but now falling volumes further confirming weakening US economy despite falling yen recently.

I said on July 3 a July Fed rate cut was in play even though no one then thought it could happen/everyone still on "sticky" consumer prices. Economy/data had already turned and today's FOMC minute release shows that a rate cut was strongly considered. youtu.be/B03jMrfetks

Fed's pivot only further confirms the recession has started. The fact Powell et al were considering a cut in July shows just how much the situation has deteriorated, a point really driven home by QCEW revisions. Those show the economy had weakened substantially long before July.

FOMC minutes also begin to suggest what forward rate markets have been pricing. Even though stocks are right back to ignoring recession, SOFR futures continue to price a large series of cuts from the Fed as usual struggles to catch up to fast-rising unemployment rate.

The number of signals and indications strongly implying unemployment is about to surge is itself growing. Consumer confidence is predictive of future unemployment - using UofM's index it indicates an unemployment rate at least 7% six to twelve months ahead.

Another unemployment signal comes from the worst labor data the BLS has - JOLTS job openings. When even the most optimistic view of unemployment conditions becomes a recession signal. No wonder the FOMC wanted to cut rates last month if not for the perma-hawks.

About sums it up. #FOMC