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Polymarkets is currently pricing in a 67% probability of a recession in the US this Year #recession #FED

Truflation, one of the most accurate inflation nowcasts, is currently estimating 1.22% YoY inflation over last 12 months. We will be watching the CPI numbers this week. #truflation #cpi #inflation #breakevens Source: truflation.com/marketplace/us…

Polymarkets is currently pricing in a 29% chance of an emergency rate cut by the FED this year, wow! #macro #macrosights #FED #stocks #bonds #recession

Fannie Mae lays off 700 employees… Source: housingwire.com/articles/repor…

BlueCrest just keeps winning. Michael Platt’s private investment firm has racked up massive net returns year after year—153% in 2022, 95% in 2020, and 20% already in 2025. Zero outside capital. Pure performance. With that, Michaell Platt is probably the most successful investor

Macro hedge fund Kedalion Capital, an under the radar firm run by ex-Morgan Stanley & Eisler trader Lorenzo Rossi, had a monster year in 2023. Net profit for members was £33.3M. Quiet firm. Big numbers. #HedgeFunds #Finance #Macro #Trading Source: UK Companies House

Check out Gold and S&P500 performance during past US recessions since 2000 in the link below, using our interactive chart. macrosights.com/static/drafts/… Over the past 25 years Gold performance has surpassed the S&P500 by a large amount, thanks to the 2000-2010 window.

🚨 Truflation's US Inflation Index is on the rise again — now at 2.07%, up from its March lows below 1.4%. This rebound suggests inflationary pressures may be picking back up faster than expected. 📉 Bond market might be underpricing this risk. Time for rates to reprice?

📉 US wage growth is losing steam. Both the annual and 3-month annualized growth rates for average hourly earnings have been trending down, now at 3.77% and 2.59%, respectively. 🔥 The labor market isn’t overheating — it’s cooling. Implications for Fed policy? 🧐 #macro #jobs

Falling realized volatility is often a green light for equities. As vol resets lower, the probability of sustained S&P 500 rallies historically increases. Calm markets = confident flows. We're seeing just that. 📉🔁📈 #SP500 #Volatility #Macro #Markets #Trading

🚨 Hedge fund pay watch 🚨 Kedalion, a rates-focused hedge fund, paid just 8 employees £56m ($76m) in 2024. The fund, run by ex-Morgan Stanley trader & former LMR PM Lorenzo Rossi, manages $1.6bn and is backed by Millennium. High pay, high stakes in macro.