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The complex new map reflects a differentiated countryside: Lib Dems replacing Tories in affluent, gentrified districts of S England; Labour overperforming in the rural north; Greens gaining in areas of lifestyle migration; Tories holding on in comfortable deep countryside. 6/15

Reform UK failed to win any rural constituencies but polled over 20% of the vote in 23 rural seats mainly in the north and east of England, often coastal or ex-industrial areas with lagging economies and perceptions of being ‘left behind’. 7/15

There are now 33 rural constituencies with majorities of less than 2500 votes, compared with only 13 in 2019 (mostly SNP/Tory contests). Only one rural constituency now has a majority of over 20,000 votes (Westmorland and Lonsdale), compared with 53 seats in 2019. 8/15

Rural marginals are held by Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. As such, the countryside will be a key battleground for the next election and rural issues are likely to have increased prominence during this parliament. 9/15

One week in to the new parliament, planning issues around housing, wind and solar farms, and pylons, are already emerging as fault lines that the Conservatives may try to exploit to regain rural voters (as some candidates attempted during the recent election). 10/15

Much will depend on whether Labour can (a) avoid the perception of an urban government imposing development on rural areas; & (b) redefine the terrain of rural politics around issues such as jobs, poverty, housing, transport, & public services – as it attempted after 1997. 11/15

Finally, Reform UK has not yet matched European right populist parties as a vehicle for rural discontent, but there are signs it attracted voters in deep rural areas. Keep watch on its performance in rural local elections and by-elections. 12/15

NB: The 140 rural constituencies analysed here are a composite of Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2011 rural-urban classification of constituencies (i.e. 40%+ of households in rural LSOAs), adjusted for the new boundaries (= 114 seats), and The Fabian Society list of rural constituencies (= 132 seats). 13/15

Some acknowledgments: 2024 constituency data from the Election Maps UK results spreadsheet; 2019 estimated results from Rallings & Thrasher’s Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies; historical analysis based on data from parlconst.org UK Parliamentary Constituencies (since 1885) 14/15

This analysis has been produced as part of the @UKRINews funded project ‘Rural Discontent, Spatial Justice and Disruptive Politics’ (Rural-Spatial-Justice) led by Michael Woods at Aberystwyth University. For more information contact ruralspatialjustice[at]aber.ac.uk

Today, we held a workshop at #RoyalWelshShow on 'What does growth look like in the rural economy?', with councillors, businesses, practitioners and others. 1/6

Answers placed emphasis less on metrics such as increased jobs or GDP & more on improving job quality (& pay) and growing opportunities for people to stay, live and work in their local area (and maintain their culture). 2/6

The price of 'growth' was thought to be too high if it led to environmental or cultural degradation, widened inequalities, or extracted wealth from the region. 3/6

Obstacles to this kind of growth identified include lack of people and limited endogenous capital, inflexible planning guidelines & fiscal rules, but also a lack of vision and attitudes and misconceptions both within and outside the region. 4/6

Inward relocation of companies was not favoured as a strategy, but increased public investment in the region and investment of external capital in growing locally run businesses were seen as important. 5/6

The workshop was part of a wider piece of work by Cymru Wledig LPIP Rural Wales exploring approaches to growth and innovation by rural businesses and communities. Thank you to everyone who participated. 6/6

Two days left to apply for these Innovation Manager and Programme Manager jobs with Cymru Wledig LPIP Rural Wales - the Rural Wales Local Policy and Innovation Partnership. Closing date: 7 August. x.com/LPIPCymruWledi…

There's a bit more time if you're interested in our Engagment Officer post - the closing date for applications is 13 August. x.com/LPIPCymruWledi…

Valentia Island & the Victorian internet: John Crowley New Geography UCC on the roots and routes of transatlantic telecommunications RTÉ Brainstorm rte.ie/brainstorm/202…

Hong Kong investor buys UK wind farms for £350mn on.ft.com/3SOuZ3l