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The Federal Reserve is now penciling in 3 rate cuts in 2024, which take the target Fed Funds rate from the current 5.25% to 5.5% (the highest in 23 years) to a 4.5% to 4.75% level Futures markets have priced in a 75% probability of a June 2024 cut of 0.25%

Northwestern Mutual says 60-something American had just $112,500 saved for the typical 20 to 30 years of retirement in addition to Social Security - which was never intended to cover all retirement costs. Worse, a 65 year-old is expected spend $125,000+ on medical USA TODAY

Fast food chains in California with 60 or more locations nationwide will have to pay $20 minimum hourly as of April 1. Some CA Pizza Hut franchises are outsourcing deliveries. Round Table pizza will lay-off 1,280 delivery drivers & Excalibur Pizza 21% of employees USA TODAY

Mall Foot Traffic Almost Back Vs Pre-COVID Foot traffic in US shopping malls was down just 2.3% in 2023 vs 2019 (pre-COVID) 2023 Vs 2019 -5.8% Indoor Malls -5.8% Open-Air Malls -8.5% Outlet Malls Placer.ai Chain Store Age

Inflation Hitting Teen Spending Survey of 6,000+ teenagers (16-years average age) self-reported spending 6% less year-over-year, ‘Well below pre-pandemic levels.’ Study by Piper Sandler Investment Bank Chain Store Age

Inflation 12-Months Ending March 2024 CPI-Based Seasonally Adjusted 3.5% Inflation Overall 3.8% Core - less food & energy 22.2% Motor Vehicle Insurance 5.0% Electricity 5.7% Rent - Primary Dwelling US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Americans paying for childcare spend an average 18.6% ($325) of their weekly income on the service per a LendingTree Most Expensive States for Childcare $493 Nevada $442 New Jersey $428 District of Columbia $413 Hawaii $409 Washington $393 Colorado & Virginia USA TODAY Money

Commercial real estate foreclosures more than doubled in March 2024 compared to 1-year ago (up 117%) days ATTOM & increased 6% vs Feb 2024 California posted 187 foreclosures in March 2024 (most in the US), up 405% year-over-year but down 8% vs February

Initial estimate of Q1 2024 GDP growth came in at a low 1.6%, down by more than half the 3.4% growth posted in Q4 2023 Concerning was the HIGH inflation rate in Q1 with PCE Index almost doubling from to 3.4% vs 1.8% in the prior quarter

The monthly cost of renting a home averaged 37% less than buying across the 50 largest metros according to a study by Bankrate Typical mortgage payment was $2,703 vs $1,979 monthly rent The San Francisco MSA typical payment was $8,539 & monthly rent $3,024 USA TODAY Money

Inflation Hitting the Caffeine Market? Starbucks reported a 3% decline in same-store sales & a 7% drop in traffic in their Q2 earnings Total sales dipped almost 2% despite opening 364 net new stores in the quarter Chain Store Age

The average 401(k) with at least $1 million in assets in Q1 2024 managed by Fidelity Investments was 26 years in the making & had a 17% contribution rate

Although the US added 272,000 jobs in Nay, the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. in the past the Federal Reserve has used a 5 to 5.5% unemployment rate to indicate full employment. Wages rose 14 cents to $34.91 per hour, up 4.1% per hour BLS-Labor Statistics

STRONG U.S. Housing Dynamics 96.4% of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage have a long-term fixed-rate loan 38.5% of U.S. homeowners have no mortgage at all vs 32.1% in 2010 25.8% of all U.S. home purchases in Q1 2022 were All Cash vs 33.5% Q4 2023 parcelLab Fast Company

Percent of US Home Loans & Interest Rate Q3 2023 88.5% of all mortgages less than 6% 78.7% of all mortgages less than 5% 59.4% of all mortgages less than 4% 22.6% of all mortgages less than 3% Redfin

A record 70.9 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home during July 4th week (Saturday June 29 to Sunday July 7). This is up 5% vs 2023 & up 8% from pre-pandemic 2019 60.6 million by autos 5.74 flying 4.6 trains, buses, cruises AAA Travel

Americans responded they would need to earn $186,000 per year to live comfortably in the Bankrate Annual Financial Freedom Survey - more than twice actual annual earnings of $79,000 30% said they are not financially secure & likely will never be, up from 26% in 2023

Commercial real estate cap rates have peaked & were basically unchanged in the 1st half say most respondents to the CBRE semi-annual survey. They do not expect transaction volumes to return to more normal levels until 2025, however

July 2024 Inflation Up 2.9% YOY Core Inflation +3.2% (less food & energy) Prices Up 20.9% Since Feb 2020 Only 6% of the approximate 400 Items tracked by the BLS for calculation of inflation are down in price Vs Feb 2020 (pre-pandemic) BLS-Labor Statistics

Pending home sales (newly signed purchase contracts) fell 5.5% in July 2024 to lowest level recorded since 2001 when NAR Research commenced reporting the metric. These are the pipeline for closings of existing homesfor August & September