Started drafting Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook for the upcoming SW Pacific 21/22 season! Chats with Ben Noll Andrew Magee Chris Brandolino chrisnoble_nz & PI NMS colleagues will reach consensus on storm activity & risk via deterministic, analog and dynamical models

Very cool!

The 2021/22 Southwest Pacific TC season is fast approaching! Released today, TCO-SP is considered in the Island Climate Update TC outlook alongside NIWA analogue and international dynamical guidance, providing a consensus-based ensemble of TC risk. Check out the latest guidance below ⬇️

Check out the full Outlook via niwa.co.nz/climate/southw… With thanks to Drew Lorrey at @niwa_nz and Andrew Magee at Tropical Cyclone Outlooks for making this Outlook possible. We now hope for good preparations and minimal impacts to our friends in the South Pacific this coming cyclone season!

Why did Australia just have its wettest November on record? A 'perfect storm' of climate drivers: 🌧 La Niña 🌧 Positive Southern Annular Mode 🌧 Negative Indian Ocean Dipole 🌧 Active Madden-Julian Oscillation

A disturbance near the Solomon Islands could become more organised this weekend 🌀 New Caledonia should keep a close eye on this potential system, as there is a chance for tropical cyclone development. The active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is over the region.

🌀Tropical Cyclone Ruby was named this afternoon, the 1st TC in the South Pacific this season. Ruby (Cat1) is forecast to intensify as it moves towards New Caledonia in the next two days. Keep up to date with official tracks and warnings via: Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland and bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65…

🌀 Tropical Cyclone Ruby made landfall in New Caledonia today 🛰️ Ruby is unlikely to directly affect any additional island groups in the SW Pacific.

Recently published in American Meteorological Society BAMS, we shine a light on the recent performance of Tropical Cyclone Outlooks and show it performed v.well for the 20/21 SWP TC season. We also asked our subscribers to evaluate its usefulness. See link below. Drew Lorrey Uni Newcastle Research bit.ly/3G2alDx

📣 A tropical depression near Vanuatu is being given a moderate to high chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next 24-48 hours by Fiji Meteorological Service 🌀 This is expected to cause heavy rainfall in Vanuatu & New Caledonia through Thursday.

The 6th tropical cyclone of the season is predicted to develop south of Vanuatu & Fiji on Thursday, according to Fiji Meteorological Service 🌀 The cyclone season runs through April, so islands should remain vigilant & keep an eye on the forecast.

Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2021, according to the 32nd annual State of the Climate report. Great to have contributed to the most comprehensive annual pulse check of our climate shorturl.at/iHT35

🌞Summer is coming as is Cyclone Season🌀 NZ may be impacted, but it doesn't take a direct hit for dangerous weather! Read the full outlook, explaining a La Niña influence this season here: niwa.co.nz/climate/southw… Thanks to Drew Lorrey Ben Noll Andrew Magee Tropical Cyclone Outlooks