🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data. We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense. 📊 Real-time seat forecasts 📈 Constituency breakdowns 🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers 👉 irishelections.ie

Our Nowcast has Reform in first place Senedd polling. But, with no realistic route to government. ➡️ Ref — 31 🌼 PC — 28 🌹 Lab — 25 🌳 Con — 6 🐤 LD — 4 🌱 GP — 2 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

A projection based on the latest Belfast Telegraph / LucidTalk poll for NI Assembly ‘27: ☘️ SF — 24 🦁 DUP — 16 🤝 AP — 14 🔷 UUP — 10 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 12 ✊ PBP — 2 🌱 GP — 1 ⚫ Ind — 1 From Devolved Election Projections devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election. DUP + UUP + TUV: 38 A Unified Party: 38 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-un…

Our first guest opinion piece from Lewis Norton looking ahead to the elections in Scotland and Wales. 2026 Devolved Elections: The Conservatives' Defining Test devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/norton-to…

Graham Simpson (Central Region) defects from Conservative to Reform becoming their only MSP. He's likely to hold a seat in the new region of Central and Lothians West. devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection! It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss. Just click it again for a different scenario. devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-irela…

We've been busy on the other site as Ireland's presidential election gets into full swing!

A projection based on the latest Barn Cymru poll for YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University for Senedd ‘26: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 36 🌹 Lab — 13 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From Devolved Election Projections

We've finalised our Presidential projection with Connolly, Gavin and Humphreys as the only candidates to be nominated. Play around with transfer rates and first preferences to see who could win! Presets will be added once polls come in. irishelections.ie/presidential/

Holyrood Projection based on the latest Survation/Scotland in Union Poll: 🎗️ SNP — 63 🌹 Lab — 18 ➡️ Ref — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🐤 LD — 11 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Our projection for Scottish Parl '26 based on the Norstat UK Political Polling poll for The Times and The Sunday Times : 🎗️ SNP — 56 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 20 🐤 LD — 12 🌳 Con — 10 🌱 GP — 7 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪ Other — 0 From @devolvedelections devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/