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Some objected to a plot which showed incomes by Congressional district, suggesting it's a Simpson's paradox to show high income districts being Democratic. Here's the survey data for whites' House vote by income, 1952-2020, from ANES. Since '12, pretty stark shift.

If you want a free copy of my element on when, why, and how to use machine learning to analyze your social science experiments, but haven’t gotten one yet, today’s the last day of open access: cambridge.org/core/elements/…

Just a couple of OSU Polisci ladies ready to rock #MPSA2023

adding "little bar snacks" to my unofficial list of things in polling that can actually gather 90+% support eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/wp-content/upl…

ICYMI: Detailed tables on 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022 voter demographics, based on validated voters: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Do you ever think about non-ignorable nonresponse bias

While you’re at it, check out our interactive literature database 👀: democratic-erosion.com/briefs/misinfo…

Errors in opt-in survey samples are twice as large, on average, as those in probability-based panels. But for young adults and Hispanics, the difference is even greater. New research from my colleagues Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social and Arnold Lau pewresearch.org/methods/2023/0…

A new poll out this a.m. from PORL finds that Donald Trump has a substantial lead over Ron DeSantis among Fla GOP voters ahead of the March primary. Trump is at 60%, followed by DeSantis at 21%, Haley at 6% unfporl.org/uploads/1/4/4/…

By the way, on a very similar topic, see this great piece by EGAP folks Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) Laura Paler Jess Gottlieb Rob Blair - robertblair.bsky.social Charlene J. Stainfield sciencedirect.com/science/articl… (whose longer, ungated version is here If I'm not mistaken: pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA021…)

FINAL: Jacksonville Jaguars sit atop the AFC at 8-3! #JAXvsHOU

X has - rather quietly - rolled out a new way to provide researchers access to public data on X, as required per article 40.12 of the Digital Services Act. How can you do get access? See the thread below 👇#dsa

Guy with 1.7M followers retweets plot with the wrong attribution. Plot twitter has become cutthroat!

Beat the paywall and download before Jan 27th! authors.elsevier.com/c/1iDnO_,5MJ2P…

Incredibly satisfying to see my former lab receiving well-deserved recognition!

UNF PSPA is hiring an Americanist, applications due 3/8. Come join a great dept that has PORL too! unfjobs.org/postings/26914

Betting markets have seen a significant improvement in Joe Biden's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election, with an increase of more than 10 percentage points in the last three weeks. Trump and Biden now basically tied.

New University of North Florida #unfpoll of FL likely voters. Trump has seven-point lead on Harris in home state of Florida, High support for marijuana, abortion amendments. See Results: unfporl.org