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CambrianMacroResearch

@cambrianmr

Decoding US and Chinese economies through data science.

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linkhttps://cmr.super.site/ calendar_today21-06-2023 20:44:43

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Republicans win control of the Senate, soon the House, + Trump presidency. We will see how tariffs play out and the Middle East and Ukraine war evolve. #USAElection2024 #Trump

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Markets priced in a 99% chance of a 25 bps rate cut tomorrow. Powell's remarks will be pivotal in shaping the policy path forward. #FOMC #Powell

Markets priced in a 99% chance of a 25 bps rate cut tomorrow. 
Powell's remarks will be pivotal in shaping the policy path forward.
#FOMC #Powell
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US commercial crude inventories added 2.1M to 427.7M barrels, above expectations. Gasoline inventories rose by 0.4M to 211.3M barrels. Refineries utilization at 90.5%, up from 89.1% in the prior week. Oil futures flat post-election, with WTI ~$72, $Brent above $75 #crude #OOTT

US commercial crude inventories added 2.1M to 427.7M barrels, above expectations.
Gasoline inventories rose by 0.4M to 211.3M barrels.
Refineries utilization at 90.5%, up from 89.1% in the prior week.
Oil futures flat post-election, with WTI ~$72, $Brent above $75
#crude #OOTT
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Equities rally, Crypto jumps post-election: - $SPX +2%, $NDX +2%, $DJI +3%, $RUT +5% - 10-year Treasury yields surged towards 4.45%, as $TLT fell below $90 - $BTC +8% towards $75,000 - Oil futures flat, Natural gas futures +4% - $GOLD -3% below $2,670, $SILVER -4% towards $31

Equities rally, Crypto jumps post-election:
- $SPX +2%, $NDX +2%, $DJI +3%, $RUT +5%
- 10-year Treasury yields surged towards 4.45%, as $TLT fell below $90
- $BTC +8% towards $75,000
- Oil futures flat, Natural gas futures +4%
- $GOLD -3% below $2,670, $SILVER -4% towards $31
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#China to boost domestic exploration of lithium, cobalt & nickel for new energy storage manufacturing, developing sodium-ion, flow, and long-duration energy storage tech. The goal is to create 3-5 major players with scale of over 100B yuan($13.9B) by 2027 for growing demand.

#China to boost domestic exploration of lithium, cobalt & nickel for new energy storage manufacturing, developing sodium-ion, flow, and long-duration energy storage tech.
The goal is to create 3-5 major players with scale of over 100B yuan($13.9B) by 2027 for growing demand.
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US jobless claims rose to 221K, up from an upwardly revised 218K the prior week. Continued claims climbed to 1.892 million. While layoffs remain low, hiring freezes make it more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. Expect Fed to continue easing. #Jobs #Fed #FOMC

US jobless claims rose to 221K, up from an upwardly revised 218K the prior week. Continued claims climbed to 1.892 million. 
While layoffs remain low, hiring freezes make it more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs. 
Expect Fed to continue easing.
#Jobs #Fed #FOMC
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Fed cut 25 bps as expected, lowering federal funds rate to 4.5%-4.75%. While the Fed acknowledged softening conditions in the labor market, they removed previous language expressing confidence about inflation moving sustainably toward 2% target. #Fed #FOMC #inflation

Fed cut 25 bps as expected, lowering federal funds rate to 4.5%-4.75%.
While the Fed acknowledged softening conditions in the labor market, they removed previous language expressing confidence about inflation moving sustainably toward 2% target.
#Fed #FOMC #inflation
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Powell explained that removing words of "gaining greater confidence" in inflation progress reflected completion of initial confidence test for first rate cut and not intended as new forward guidance. #Powell #Fed #FOMC

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US consumer credit rose by $6B in September, slowing from downwardly revised $7.64B increase in August, well below expectations. Annual growth slowed to 1.4% - Revolving credit (credit card) +0.9% - Nonrevolving (auto, student loans) +1.6% Overall more cautious in borrowing.

US consumer credit rose by $6B in September, slowing from downwardly revised $7.64B increase in August, well below expectations.

Annual growth slowed to 1.4%
- Revolving credit (credit card) +0.9%
- Nonrevolving (auto, student loans) +1.6%
Overall more cautious in borrowing.